$IREN 15M — May 14, 2026 10:46 PTIREN LimitedBATS:IRENCEO_of_WaverVanir_Int_LLCIREN 15M — May 14, 2026 10:46 PT Setup: breakout and retest of descending trendline. Multi-week base after the May 8 push to $63.50. Candle: O $58.13 / H $58.30 / L $58.05 / C $58.07 (-0.08%) Sitting AT descending trendline retest from prior swing high. Chart structure: ▪ May 8 swing high $63.50 (1.0 fib anchor) ▪ Descending trendline from $63.50 → $61.50 lower high ▪ Current spot $58.07 testing trendline ▪ Support ladder: $57.26 (0.702) → $55.50 (0.618) → $53.89 (0.541) key floor ▪ Resistance ladder: $59.02 (0.786) → $61.11 (0.886) → $63.50 (1.0) → $68.44 (1.236) → $76.44 (1.618) Macro catalyst stack: ▪ Q3 FY26 May 7: AI Cloud revenue +94.2% QoQ to $33.6M ▪ $3.4B 5-year AI Cloud contract with NVIDIA (Blackwell) ▪ 5GW strategic partnership with NVIDIA ▪ NVIDIA option to buy 30M shares at $70 = $2.1B = structural strike magnet ▪ $9.7B 5-year GPU supply contract with Microsoft ▪ $3.1B ARR under contract, $3.7B target end-2026 ▪ Today's H200 China clearance = direct AI infrastructure tailwind Flow read (today): ▪ Net +$2.08M / +28% bull on 112 sweeps, C/P 100/12 ▪ Bull: $0.47M $100C 246DTE + $0.44M $90C 617DTE + $0.43M $70C 617DTE = institutional LEAPS accumulation at NVIDIA strike zone ▪ Cap: $0.63M $58C 8DTE sold NEW = near-term ceiling at $58 through next week ▪ Pattern: long-term bull bet, near-term cap. Same playbook as NVDA $270C / AMD $500C this week. Targets (your framework: 1.236 or 1.618): ▪ T1: $63.50 (1.0 reclaim required first) ▪ T2: $68.44 (1.236 fib — primary target) ▪ T3: $76.44 (1.618 fib — stretch on continuation) ▪ Stretch: $81.39 (1.854) on full NVDA tailwind extension Trigger: 15m close above descending trendline + $59.02 (0.786 fib) with volume = setup activated Invalidation: 15m close below $55.50 (0.618 fib) = retest failed, base extends or breaks Hard stop: $53.89 (0.541 fib + multi-week floor) R:R from $58.07 to T2 ($68.44): +17.8% / Stop ($53.89): -7.2% = ~2.5:1 To T3 ($76.44): +31.6% / Stop = ~4.4:1 Probability: 🟢 Break trendline + reclaim $63.50 → $68 target: 30% 🟡 Range $55-62 chop 1-2 weeks: 40% 🔴 Trendline rejection → $53.89: 25% 🔴 Break $53 → $50-49: 5% This is a setup waiting for trigger confirmation. Not a chase. Watch the trendline retest resolution into close today and Monday open. Process over prediction. Risk-first, always. Not investment advice.