DAVID PIERSON, 郭莉莉2026年5月16日中国国家主席习近平于周四在北京欢迎特朗普总统。 Kenny Holston/The New York TimesChina’s leader, Xi Jinping, has spent the last year standing up to President Trump. He met triple-digit tariff with triple-digit tariff and restricted rare earth exports, forcing the Trump administration to back down. Both sides suffered, and so did the global economy.中国领导人习近平在过去一年中与特朗普总统针锋相对。他以三位数关税回击三位数关税，并限制稀土出口，迫使特朗普政府做出让步。双方都付出了代价，全球经济也深受其害。But having made his point, and established China as America’s peer, Mr. Xi is now pivoting from retaliation to conciliation. At a summit in Beijing this week that he billed as historic, Mr. Xi offered Washington a choice: Accept China as an equal power with red lines that must not be crossed or continue in a cycle of conflict that risks a global “Thucydides Trap” of superpower collision.但在表明立场、确立中国作为美国对等大国的地位后，习近平现在正从报复转向和解。在本周北京举行的他称为具有历史意义的峰会上，习近平让华盛顿做出选择：是接受中国作为拥有不可逾越红线的平等大国，还是继续一个可能导致全球落入“修昔底德陷阱”的超级大国冲突循环。He has given this new blueprint a new, if somewhat stilted, name: “constructive strategic stability.”他为这一新蓝图起了一个略显拗口的新名字：“建设性战略稳定”。He trotted out the term throughout the summit, a visit designed to show Mr. Trump what friendship could look like between the two countries, with pageantry in the cavernous rooms of the Great Hall of the People, a private tour of the Temple of Heaven and talks inside Zhongnanhai, the secretive walled compound of the Chinese leadership.他在整个峰会期间反复使用这个词，此次访问旨在向特朗普展示两国之间友谊可能的样子：在人民大会堂宽敞大厅举行的盛大仪式、参观天坛的私人导览，以及在中南海——壁垒森严的中国领导人园区——内进行的会谈。In some ways, the Trump administration was already playing by China’s rules on this visit. The American president was largely deferential to Mr. Xi. Mr. Trump lavished him with praise and refrained from pushing back when the Chinese leader issued a warning to the United States about treading carefully on the subject of Taiwan, the self-governed island claimed by Beijing.在某些方面，特朗普政府此次访问已经是在按照中国的规则行事。美国总统在很大程度上对习近平持顺从态度。特朗普对他大加赞扬，当中国领导人就台湾问题警告美国要谨慎行事时，特朗普也没有反驳。台湾是北京声称拥有主权但实行自治的岛屿。Redefining the terms of engagement重新定义接触原则Mr. Xi spoke in lofty, abstract terms about what exactly constructive strategic stability entailed. He spoke of “cooperation” being a “mainstay”; “competition within proper limits”; “manageable differences” and “expectable peace.”习近平以宏大而抽象的措辞阐述了“建设性战略稳定”究竟意味着什么。他谈到“合作为主”；“竞争有度”；“分歧可控”和“和平可期”。What that boils down to, said Xin Qiang, a U.S.-China expert at Fudan University in Shanghai, is the acknowledgment that competition is part of the relationship.复旦大学中美问题专家信强表示，这归根结底是承认竞争是两国关系的一部分。Despite that, the two countries can hold out hope that there are more reasons to cooperate than there are to clash. The summit underscored some of the ways in which they could potentially work together, such as combating the flow of fentanyl to the United States, setting ground rules for artificial intelligence and resolving the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz.尽管如此，两国仍可寄希望于合作的理由多于冲突的理由。此次峰会凸显了双方可能合作的若干领域，例如打击芬太尼流入美国、为人工智能制定基本规则，以及解决霍尔木兹海峡的僵局。Is Washington on board with this?华盛顿是否接受这一理念？China’s official summary of the meeting said Mr. Trump agreed to Mr. Xi’s new definition of the relationship. Though the White House made no mention of it in its own summary, Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested in an interview with NBC on Friday that the Trump administration had endorsed the concept.中国官方对此次会晤的总结称，特朗普同意习近平对两国关系的新定义。虽然白宫自己的总结中并未提及，但美国国务卿马可·鲁比奥周五在接受NBC采访时表示，特朗普政府已认可这一理念。“One of the things the Chinese emphasize, which we agree, is strategic stability in our relationship, a constructive relationship, but also one that establishes strategic stability so that we don’t have misunderstandings that could lead to broader conflict,” Mr. Rubio said.“中国人强调的一点是我们也同意的，那就是我们关系中的战略稳定，一种建设性的关系，同时也建立战略稳定，以避免可能导致更大冲突的误解，”鲁比奥说。此次访问旨在向特朗普展示两国可以建立怎样的友谊。Just a few years ago, Beijing was vehemently opposed to a policy of the Biden administration called “managed competition” that has echoes of what Mr. Xi is proposing now. It entailed accepting that the two sides were rivals, but also imposing guardrails to prevent the relationship from veering into conflict. Beijing rejected that framework as a bid to contain China.就在几年前，北京还强烈反对拜登政府提出的“可控竞争”政策，该政策与习近平现在提出的理念有相似之处。它承认双方是竞争对手，但同时设置护栏以防止关系滑向冲突。北京当时拒绝这一框架，认为这是遏制中国的企图。Why Mr. Xi is comfortable with the idea today could have much to do with the growing parity in power between China and the United States. Beijing feels as though it can no longer be pushed around by Washington after fighting the Trump administration to a draw during last year’s trade war by threatening to throttle global supplies of critical minerals needed to make modern technologies.习近平如今愿意接受这一理念，可能与中美两国权力日益接近对等有很大关系。在去年贸易战中，北京通过威胁扼杀全球关键矿产供应（这些矿产是制造现代技术所必需的）与特朗普政府战成平手，此后北京觉得华盛顿再也无法随意摆布自己。Why Xi is ready to talk习近平为何愿意对话At the same time, confrontation with the United States does China no favors. Its economy has been stagnant for years because of a property crisis, and it cannot afford any disruptions to global trade, its chief engine of growth.与此同时，与美国对抗对中国毫无益处。由于房地产危机，中国经济多年来一直停滞不前，无法承受全球贸易的任何中断，而全球贸易是中国经济增长的主要引擎。Mr. Xi is signaling that he wants to lock in the current stalemate so that the Trump administration will not interfere with his greater vision for China’s future: a country brimming with technological and industrial might poised to overtake a declining United States as the premier global power.习近平正在发出信号，他希望锁定目前的僵持局面，以便特朗普政府不会干扰他对中国未来的更大愿景：一个拥有强大技术和工业实力的国家准备超越日益衰落的美国，成为全球首要大国。“For China, this phrase is about buying time and playing for advantage as Beijing tries to wait out the Trump administration,” said Evan Medeiros, a Georgetown professor who was senior Asia director on the National Security Council under President Barack Obama.“对中方而言，这个表述是为了争取时间并在等待特朗普政府任期结束的过程中占据优势，”乔治城大学教授、曾在贝拉克·奥巴马政府担任国家安全委员会亚洲事务高级主任的麦艾文(Evan Medeiros)说。“China wants to manage what they see as gradual U.S. decline in the hopes of both expediting it but also making it as non-disruptive as possible,” he added.“中国希望管理他们所看到的美国逐渐衰落的过程，既希望加速这一过程，又希望让它尽可能不具破坏性，”他补充说。China is playing the long game中国着眼于长线The United States is no stranger to China’s attempts to frame the two countries’ relationship to its advantage.美国对中国试图以有利于自己的方式定义两国关系并不陌生。Mr. Xi tried to sell Mr. Obama on what he called “a new model of great power relations” in 2013 that called on the United States to respect what China considers its core interests such as its claims to Taiwan and the South China Sea.2013年，习近平曾试图向奥巴马推销他所谓的“新型大国关系”，要求美国尊重中国认为的核心利益，例如对台湾和南海的主权主张。The Obama administration ultimately refused to endorse the concept, recognizing that it required ceding power in Asia and leaving allies and partners vulnerable.奥巴马政府最终拒绝认可这一概念，认为它要求美国在亚洲让渡权力，并置盟友和伙伴于险境。2015年，中国国家主席习近平与美国总统奥巴马会面。“This is a classic Chinese move which they try to get the United States to agree to a framework as a way to bind Washington and set the terms of the bilateral relationship going forward,” Mr. Medeiros said of Mr. Xi’s latest attempt.“这是典型的中国做法，他们试图让美国同意一个框架，以此来约束华盛顿并设定未来双边关系的条款，”麦艾文在谈到习近平最新尝试时说。“These phrases are geopolitical quick sand,” he added. “Once you step in you cannot get out, and the more you try, the deeper you get pulled in by China.”“这些表述是地缘政治的流沙，”他补充道。“一旦踏入就无法脱身，你越挣扎，就会被中国拉得越深。”How China will use this reset中国将如何利用这一重置This is a reframing of the relationship, but on Beijing’s terms, said Shen Dingli, an international relations scholar in Shanghai.上海国际关系学者沈丁立表示，这是在按照北京的条件重新定义两国关系。China, for example, could later claim that the Trump administration had violated the tenets of constructive strategic stability by continuing to sell more arms to Taiwan.例如，中国以后可能会声称，特朗普政府继续向台湾出售更多武器违反了建设性战略稳定的原则。“What China wants is for the China-U.S. relationship to be good and stable, but with the condition that China says, ‘I am the one providing the path and I am the one pointing the way,” Mr. Shen said.“中国想要的是中美关系良好且稳定，但前提条件是中国说，‘我才是提供路径的人，我才是指明方向的人，’”他说。Other Chinese analysts say a new framework is necessary to dampen the influence of China hawks in Congress, who threaten to derail the détente. There is also a fear that Mr. Trump could change his position on China after the 2026 midterm elections.还有一些中国分析人士表示，需要一个新框架来削弱国会中对华鹰派的影响力，他们威胁要破坏当前的缓和局面。同时也担心特朗普在2026年中期选举后可能改变对华立场。“The worry is always there. It’s something he’s quite known for,” said Dr. Xin of Fudan University.“这种担忧始终存在。这是他出了名的特点，”复旦大学的信强说。Berry Wang和Pei-Lin Wu对本文有报道贡献。David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。郭莉莉(Lily Kuo)是《纽约时报》报道中国记者，常驻台北。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。