Gold is caught in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears: Is a breGold / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:XAUUSDXau_AnnikaGold is caught in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears: Is a breakout imminent, or a rebound and correction? Recent gold price movements resemble a silent tug-of-war. Rallies are exhilarating, while drops catch investors off guard. Many cling to the belief that "there will always be a pullback," only to find their short positions either stopped out or deeply trapped; others impulsively chase the rally, only to be left holding the bag. The bitterness and helplessness of investing cannot be summed up by simply saying "bad luck." These days, many investors frankly admit that their accounts are constantly caught in a cycle of being trapped, with short positions immediately followed by long positions. The market is never short of opportunities; what's lacking is the eye to understand the rhythm. Since you're still reading this article, it means you still have ambition and hope. I won't compromise, and I won't be perfunctory—may luck be with you and profits accompany you in the upcoming market movements. Fundamentals: Interest Rate Pressures Remain, Geopolitical Safe-Haven Desensitization Diminishes While US retail sales data released last Saturday showed a slight increase in April, this was largely driven by inflation pushing up nominal figures. Meanwhile, import prices saw their largest increase since March 2022, indicating that cost pressures are spreading to a wider economic sector. Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials have been generally neutral to hawkish—Schmid explicitly stated that "inflation remains the biggest risk," while Williams said there is "no reason to raise or lower interest rates at present." This means that the high-interest-rate environment may last longer than the market previously expected, and gold will continue to be pressured by real interest rates. Geopolitically, Ukraine suffered a large-scale airstrike, Israel and Lebanon resumed negotiations, and Gulf states are also discussing a non-aggression pact. Although geopolitical disturbances have not completely subsided, the market's reaction to safe-haven news has clearly become less pronounced—the same news, which might have generated a strong bullish candle two months ago, is now failing to drive a sustained rebound in gold prices. In summary: Macroeconomic interest rate expectations remain the core logic driving gold prices, while short-term volatility risks for silver are simultaneously amplified. The market has yet to show clear signs of stabilization, and gold is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend. Technical Analysis: Key Support Levels Are Fragile; Rebound Strength Will Determine Direction Gold continued to hit new lows on Friday, reaching a low of 4511, just a step away from the psychological level of 4500. Although some buying support has emerged in this area in the short term, the overall structure suggests limited rebound strength, with indicators remaining weak. Further downward movement is likely after consolidation. 4-Hour Chart: The key support level to watch is the 4500-4510 area. A decisive break below this level would open up downside potential, with the next target at 4450, and in extreme cases, testing the vicinity of 4400. On the upside, the short-term support/resistance level is at 4600. If the rebound fails to hold above this level, the weakness remains. Further resistance lies in the 4680-4690 area, which was previously key support but has now become significant resistance. Only a firm hold above 4600 could allow gold to escape its weakness, enter a consolidation phase, or even experience a short-term rebound. Hourly chart: Currently consolidating at low levels, the rebound lacks continuity, and indicators remain weak. If the 4500 level holds, gold prices may consolidate briefly around 4560-4580 before choosing a direction; conversely, if 4500 is breached and confirmed, a rapid decline should be anticipated. Next week's strategy: Determine long or short positions based on key levels, avoid blindly buying the dip or chasing shorts. The current market is in a sensitive phase of "weak but not broken, weak rebound." Avoid betting on the direction prematurely. It is recommended to establish positions in batches around key support/resistance areas: Short strategy: Significant resistance is seen in the 4580-4600 area. Consider a small short position with a stop-loss above 4630. The initial target is 4520-4500, and if it breaks through, hold to 4450. Long Position Strategy: Only consider a small position to speculate on a rebound if a clear bottoming signal appears in the 4500-4510 area (e.g., a long lower shadow or small bullish candle on the hourly chart). The stop-loss should be placed below 4490, with a target of 4560-4580. If the price breaks below 4500, long positions should be exited decisively; do not hold on for too long. Losing Positions: If you hold long positions above 4600, monitor whether the 4500 level can hold. If it fails to rebound above 4550, consider reducing your position or setting a stop-loss. If you hold short positions at lower levels, you can gradually take profits in the 4580-4600 area. Holding positions over the weekend is not recommended. At this stage of the market, it's not about who has the best prediction skills, but about who can control their impulses and endure the uncertainty. Before the direction is clear, observe more and act less; if you do act, use stop-loss orders—this is the most basic respect you can show to your account. Technical Guidance and Loss Recovery: If you don't give up, I won't be perfunctory. The market is always fluctuating. Being trapped in a position isn't scary; what's scary is losing rhythm and confidence. If you're currently anxious about your holdings or have no clue about next week's market trend, feel free to leave your questions and entry/exit points in the comments section. Every in-depth exchange could be the beginning of a breakthrough. On the road to investment, what we pursue is never the gains or losses of a single battle, but long-term stability and composure. If you found this article helpful, please give it a like so more friends who are feeling lost can see it. You can also share it with those who need it—sometimes, a simple action can help someone avoid a lot of detours. Next week's market, let's fight side by side.