EUR/USD Is Starting To CrackEUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDEdgeTradingJourneyAfter several weeks of aggressive bullish momentum, I’m starting to see the first real signs of exhaustion on EUR/USD. Price recently rejected the 1.1780–1.1900 premium zone while also respecting the descending macro trendline that has been controlling structure since the January highs. For me, this is an important signal because despite the strong bullish narrative surrounding the euro lately, the market is beginning to show weaker delivery at higher prices. At the moment, price is sitting directly inside a Daily FVG around 1.1620. This area becomes critical going into next week because it’s the first real support capable of generating a reaction. From the latest COT report, non-commercial traders are still heavily net long euro futures, confirming that institutional positioning remains structurally bullish on EUR in the medium term. At the same time, however, DXY positioning is starting to stabilize after prolonged dollar weakness. This creates the perfect environment for a temporary USD rebound. Retail sentiment adds even more confirmation to my idea. Currently around 65% of retail traders remain long EUR/USD, with most positioning concentrated above current market price. From a contrarian perspective, this tells me liquidity below current levels is still highly attractive. Seasonality also supports temporary weakness into the second half of May, especially when looking at the 10-year and 15-year historical curves. My main scenario now is : • Short-term reaction from the Daily FVG around 1.1620 • Possible relief bounce/liquidity grab • Failure to reclaim higher supply • Expansion lower toward 1.1540 • Potential continuation into the 1.1400 macro demand zone if dollar strength accelerates further