LEO SANDS2026年5月21日As the leaders of the United States and China met in Beijing on Thursday, Xi Jinping had a much older rivalry on his mind.中美两国领导人在北京会晤时，习近平主席心中思索着一段更为久远的对抗史。The Chinese president invoked a warning from the Classical world, when the Greek city-states of Athens and Sparta went to war, saying that the United States and China should beware the “Thucydides Trap” in their own relations.中国国家主席援引了来自古典时代的警示——古希腊城邦雅典与斯巴达兵戎相见的那段历史，他指出，中美关系应警惕两国关系中可能出现的“修昔底德陷阱”。Mr. Xi cited the concept, popularized in recent decades, as he warned that Beijing and Washington could enter an “extremely dangerous place” if President Trump sought to impede China as it asserted itself over Taiwan.习近平提及的这一概念在近几十年来广为流行，他警告称，如果特朗普总统试图阻碍中国对台湾的主张，中美或将步入“十分危险的境地”。The trap referred to by Mr. Xi was named for Thucydides, the ancient Athenian general, whose account of the Second Peloponnesian War (431 B.C. to 404 B.C.) is considered one of the first written military histories.习近平所说的“陷阱”得名于古希腊雅典将军修昔底德。他所著的《伯罗奔尼撒战争史》（公元前431年至前404年）被视为最早的书面军事史之一。In it, Thucydides argued that the war between Athens and Sparta was driven by the threat posed to an established power by one gaining strength. “The rise of Athens frightened Sparta and forced them into war,” wrote Thucydides. (The precise translation is contested among classicists).在这本书中，修昔底德认为，雅典与斯巴达之间的战争源于崛起中的强权对既有强权构成的威胁，“雅典的崛起，以及斯巴达挥之不去的恐惧，使战争不可避免，”（这一表述的精确英译在古典学者中存在争议。）For some scholars, the war — and the explanation offered for it in that ancient passage — presaged nearly every major conflict to follow. The international relations theorist Graham Allison dubbed it the “Thucydides Trap” in the early 2010s.部分学者认为，这场战争及其这本古书中对它的解释几乎预示了此后所有重大冲突。国际关系理论家格雷厄姆·艾利森于2010年代初将其命名为“修昔底德陷阱”。“The idea is that when an established, great power is met with a rising power, conflict between the two is certainly likely if not inevitable,” said Daniel Sutton, a classicist at the University of Cambridge who studies Thucydides, on Thursday.剑桥大学古典学学者、修昔底德研究专家丹尼尔·萨顿周四表示：“这一概念的核心是，当既有大国遭遇一个崛起中的大国时，两者之间发生冲突的可能性极高，甚至可能是不可避免的。”In Mr. Xi’s version of the analogy, an emboldened China is the Athens to an American Sparta. Neither role is especially attractive: Athens lost the war, its empire and most of its influence. Sparta won, but its dominance among Greek city states also waned after a few decades.在习近平的类比中，日益大胆的中国相当于雅典，而美国则相当于斯巴达。这两个角色都不算太好：雅典战败，失去了帝国与大部分影响力；斯巴达虽胜，但在希腊城邦中的主导地位数十年后亦告衰落。To demonstrate his theory, Professor Allison identified 16 times in history that a rising power threatened to displace a ruling one. According to his tally, which is subjective, 12 of the 16 rivalries ended in a conflict.为佐证其理论，艾利森梳理了历史上16次新兴大国威胁取代既有霸权大国的案例，根据他的主观统计，16次中有12次最终爆发冲突。For more than a decade, Mr. Xi and top-ranking Chinese diplomats have invoked the concept, but presented it as a cautionary tale rather than an inevitability.十余年来，习近平及中国高层外交官多次提及这一概念，但将其视为一个警示故事，而非必然趋势。“There is no such thing as the so-called Thucydides Trap in the world,” said Mr. Xi in 2015, before an audience that included the former secretary of state Henry Kissinger.2015年，习近平对包括前国务卿基辛格在内的听众们表示：“世界上本无‘修昔底德陷阱’。”It was on his mind again on Thursday. Speaking before Mr. Trump in the Great Hall of the People, Mr. Xi said the world had reached a new crossroads. “Can China and the United States overcome the ‘Thucydides Trap’ and establish a new paradigm for relations between great powers?” he asked.周四，他再次提及这一话题。在人民大会堂面向特朗普发表讲话时，习近平称世界已走到新的十字路口。“中美两国能不能跨越‘修昔底德陷阱’，开创大国关系新范式？”他问道Ryan Swan, a China-U.S. relations expert at the Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies in Germany, saw Mr. Xi’s repeated use of the concept as part of a wider diplomatic effort by Beijing to cast itself as a “responsible great power” that can coexist peacefully with the United States.德国波恩国际冲突研究中心中美关系专家瑞安·斯旺认为，习近平反复提及这一概念是中国外交更广泛努力的一部分，旨在将自身塑造为可与美国和平共处的“负责任大国”。Since taking office in 2012, Mr. Xi has pressed for the United States to treat China as an equal and not oppose Beijing in its backyard, a validation that Chinese officials believe would produce a more stable coexistence.自2012年上任以来，习近平一直推动美国平等对待中国，不要在中国后院与北京对抗，中国官员认为，这样的认可将促成更稳定的共存局面。“China views the Thucydides Trap not as a predictive model, as it has occasionally been used in Western circles, but as a threat that can and should be avoided,” said Mr. Swan. “中国不把修昔底德陷阱视为西方语境中偶尔使用的预测模型，而是将其看作可以且应当避免的威胁，”斯旺说。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。