KEITH BRADSHER2026年5月21日许多中国家庭将积蓄投入房产——它们曾被视为积累财富的安全途径，结果却眼睁睁看着房产价值崩塌。 The New York TimesDuring China’s slow-moving housing crash, there have been brief stretches when prices stabilized, raising hopes that the multiyear slide was finally over. Each time, those reprieves have proved short-lived — pauses before the market resumed its decline.在中国缓慢发展的房地产崩盘过程中，房价曾出现过短暂企稳短暂期，一度让人们重新燃起了长达数年的下滑势头终于结束的希望。但每一次，这些缓和最终都被证明是短暂的——不过是市场重拾跌势前的停顿。After housing prices in several of China’s biggest cities leveled off in the first few months of the year, the market is again at a crossroads. Analysts and economists are split over whether this constitutes a bottom for a downturn that has eroded much of the country’s middle-class savings or merely another lull before the next leg down.今年前几个月，中国几个最大城市的房价趋于平稳，但如今市场再次走到了十字路口。这是否意味着这场蚕食了中国中产阶级大量积蓄的低迷期已经触底？还是这只是下一次下跌前的另一个平静期？分析师和经济学家们意见不一。Average prices for existing homes in China’s so-called Tier 1 cities — Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou — ticked up 2 percent from February through April, according to data compiled by UBS, the Swiss financial institution, and Centaline, one of China’s largest real estate brokerage firms. The uptick followed a 38 percent plunge since 2021 that has rippled through the Chinese and global economies.根据瑞士金融机构瑞银集团(UBS)和中国最大的房地产经纪公司之一中原地产汇编的数据，今年2月至4月，中国一线城市——北京、上海、深圳和广州——的二手房平均价格微涨了2%。此次微涨之前，自2021年以来这些城市房价暴跌了38%，并在中国和全球经济中引发了连锁反应。The toll of the crash has been heavy at home and consequential abroad. Many Chinese families had poured the bulk of their savings into apartments, treating property as a safe bet for building wealth — only to discover, to their anger and dismay, that it was anything but.这场崩盘带来的代价在国内十分沉重，在国外也产生了深远影响。许多中国家庭将大部分储蓄投入到公寓中，将房产视为积累财富的安全选择，结果却愤怒和沮丧地发现事实远非如此。Timothy Liu, an office worker in China’s north-central Henan Province, is one of those buyers. He spent about $76,000 on a small apartment in his hometown in 2021, only to see its value drop by nearly a third. Like many in China, he lost his job two years ago and has struggled to find another as the economy has slowed, in part because of the housing downturn.在中国中北部的河南省，上班族蒂莫西·刘（音）就是这样的购房者之一。他在2021年花了52万元人民币在老家买了一套小公寓，结果眼睁睁地看着它的价值缩水了近三分之一。和中国的许多人一样，他在两年前失业了，并且由于经济放缓（部分原因是房地产低迷）一直苦于找不到另一份工作。His only consolation is that he paid cash for a modest home in a low-cost neighborhood rather than borrowing money to buy in a big city. “Although I managed to avoid taking on a huge mortgage in a first-tier city, my apartment has still dropped in value by nearly 30 percent — I’m really upset about it,” he said.他唯一的安慰在于，他是用现金在低成本社区买了一套普普通通的房子，而不是借钱在大城市买房。“虽然我避免了在一线城市背上巨额房贷，但我自己的房子也还是跌了将近30%。我真的很伤心，”他说。按百分比计算，中国房地产低迷期的跌幅几乎是美国当年引发全球金融危机的房地产崩盘的两倍。Mr. Liu’s predicament is far from unusual. As home values have tumbled, consumers have slashed spending on cars, cosmetics and other nonessentials. With factories unable to sell enough goods at home, China unleashed a flood of exports, resulting in trillion-dollar trade surpluses.刘先生的困境绝非个例。随着房屋价值跌落，消费者大幅削减了在汽车、化妆品和其他非必需品上的支出。由于工厂无法通过内销卖出足够的产品，中国释放了大量的出口，从而导致了万亿美元的贸易顺差。Optimistic analysts now see a turning point, particularly in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Landlords still cannot charge enough rent to cover their mortgage payments, but the gap has narrowed sharply. Shanghai has also made it much easier for buyers to borrow money through a municipal housing fund that provides extra-cheap mortgages.乐观的分析师现在看到了转折点，尤其是在上海和深圳。房东收取的租金仍不足以覆盖他们的抵押贷款月供，但差距已大幅缩小。上海还通过住房公积金提供超低息贷款，让购房者借钱变得容易得多。“Effectively, you are seeing an interest-rate cut,” said Karl Choi, the head of Greater China property research at Bank of America Global Research.美银全球研究大中华区房地产研究主管蔡崇嘉(Karl Choi)表示：“你看到的实际上是一次降息。”Mr. Choi predicted that prices in major Chinese cities would stabilize in the second half of this year, and that the recovery would spread to smaller cities in 2027.他预测，中国主要城市的房价将在今年下半年企稳，而这种复苏将在2027年蔓延到较小的城市。In percentage terms, China’s housing market has fallen almost twice as far as America’s did two decades ago, when the U.S. real estate collapse caused banks to fail and triggered a global financial crisis.从百分比来看，中国房地产市场的跌幅几乎是美国20年前的两倍，当时美国房地产的崩盘导致银行倒闭并引发了全球金融危机。Many Americans had taken out large mortgages with little or nothing down, and they could not keep up with payments once prices stopped rising and began to fall.许多美国人当时在极少或没有首付的情况下背负了巨额抵押贷款，一旦房价停止上涨并开始下跌，他们就无法维持还款。Chinese banks, by contrast, have consistently demanded hefty down payments, which urban households can afford because they typically save up to two-fifths of their income.相比之下，中国银行一直要求支付高额的首付，由于城市家庭通常会存下五分之二的收入，他们能够负担得起这些首付。Those big down payments have cushioned China’s banking system. Prices have to fall a very long way before a mortgage is worth more than the home behind it.这些高额首付为中国的银行系统提供了缓冲。价格必须下跌极大幅度，抵押贷款的金额才会超过其背后的房屋价值。在中国，家庭大部分储蓄都放在房产上，四分之一的城市家庭拥有两套或以上住房。Limiting mortgage losses, however, is not the same as reviving the housing market.然而，限制抵押贷款损失并不等同于复苏房地产市场。Other analysts dispute whether there are any real green shoots, pointing to the estimated 90 million empty or unfinished apartments and to the long delays sellers face in finding any buyers at all.另一些分析师对是否存在任何真正的复苏迹象表示怀疑，他们指出估计有9000万套空置或未完工的公寓，卖家久久找不到任何买家。Prices briefly stabilized a year ago, too, before plunging again.一年前，价格也曾短暂企稳，随后再次跌落。In addition, the four Tier 1 cities account for only 6 percent of China’s population, and prices have fallen even more steeply elsewhere.此外，四个一线城市仅占中国人口的6%，而其他地方的价格跌幅甚至更加剧烈。Over the past several years, big Chinese cities have allowed more apartments to be sold to residents of smaller cities. “That’s attracted more people from other parts of the country,” said John Lam, head of Asia property research at UBS.在过去几年中，中国的大城市允许向较小城市的居民售出更多公寓。瑞银集团亚洲房地产研究主管林镇鸿(John Lam)表示：“这吸引了来自全国其他地区的更多人口。”That migration has hollowed out smaller cities. In Yancheng, a town about 200 miles north of Shanghai, a resident who gave only his family name, Shao, said real estate prices had halved in the last few years as people left for larger cities.这种迁徙掏空了较小的城市。在上海以北约300公里的盐城，一位只透露自己姓邵的居民表示，过去几年，随着人们离开前往更大的城市，当地的房地产价格已经腰斩。“Locals aren’t keen on buying homes here anymore — many have moved to cities further south, like Suzhou or Shanghai, to buy property and don’t come back,” he said.“本地人都不热衷在这买房子了，很多人都去了像苏州和上海这样更南边的城市买房安家，然后再也不回来了，”他说。As prices have plummeted in China since 2021, the toll has fallen not on banks but on homeowners, who have watched much of their equity vanish.自2021年中国房价暴跌以来，付出代价的并不是银行，而是目睹了自己大部分资产净值凭空消失的业主。The nationwide China Household Finance Survey, conducted every two years by Southwestern University of Finance and Economics in Chengdu, China, found that the average net worth of urban households had fallen to $130,000 by the summer of last year, down from $163,000 two years earlier.由位于中国成都的西南财经大学每两年进行一次的全国性“中国家庭金融调查”发现，到去年夏天，城市家庭的平均净资产已降至88.9万元，低于两年前的111.6万元。分析师在上海和深圳看到了房地产市场回暖的迹象，这得益于购房者更容易获得低成本抵押贷款。Even these numbers may underestimate the damage. The survey found that homeowners typically guessed their homes had lost only a fifth of their value since the peak.即使是这些数字也可能低估了损害。调查发现，房屋所有人一般估计他们的房子自峰值以来仅失去了五分之一的价值。Surveys consistently find that Chinese households hold three-quarters of their savings in real estate, often buying an extra apartment as an investment rather than buying stocks, bonds or mutual funds.调查一致发现，中国家庭将其四分之三的储蓄放在房地产中，通常会购买额外的公寓作为投资，而不是购买股票、债券或共同基金。A quarter of Chinese urban households own two or more homes, compared with about 4 percent of Americans, said Sam Radwan, chief executive of Enhance International, a global real estate consulting firm in Chicago. Many Chinese families cannot find renters for these investment apartments because of the glut of vacant units. Even when they do, the rent is often far less than the monthly mortgage payment.总部位于芝加哥的全球房地产咨询公司美商翰思(Enhance International)首席执行官萨姆·拉德万表示，四分之一的中国城市家庭拥有两套或以上的住房，在美国这一比例约为4%。由于空置房屋过剩，许多中国家庭无法为这些投资型公寓找到租客。即使找到了，租金也往往远低于抵押贷款月供。For Mr. Liu, who is in his early 30s, the drop in his apartment’s value has wiped out all the savings he had built up since university.对于30出头的刘先生来说，公寓价值的下跌已经抹去了他自大学毕业以来的所有积蓄。“It feels like I’ve worked for nothing for a decade,” he said. “I can only try to comfort myself by thinking that if I had bought a home and settled in a first-tier city back then, the losses I’m facing now might be equivalent to working for nothing for 30 to 50 years.”“我感觉自己到头来白干10年，”他说。“所以我现在只能尝试安慰我自己说，如果当初我在一线城市买房安家的话，可能要白干30到50年。”Ruoxin Zhang对本文有研究贡献。Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。