S&P 500 remains cautiously constructiveUS 500 (per 1.0)TRADENATION:US500TradeNationUS equity futures are little changed this morning following results from Nvidia, with investors balancing another exceptional earnings report against guidance that, while above expectations, was not strong enough to trigger a major upside reaction. Nvidia’s 85% YoY revenue growth and strong 75% gross margin reinforced the AI-driven growth story, but the relatively modest beat on forward sales guidance led to some profit taking after the stock’s near 20% YTD rally. For today’s S&P 500 trading, the bigger macro driver remains geopolitical developments around Iran and the resulting move in oil and bond markets. Yesterday’s strong rally in equities was fueled by optimism that the US and Iran may be moving closer to a diplomatic agreement, which sharply reduced fears of an energy shock. Brent crude’s more than 5% decline eased inflation concerns and helped Treasury yields retreat from recent highs, creating a more supportive backdrop for risk assets. The fall in yields particularly supported growth and technology stocks, with lower breakeven inflation rates helping investors regain confidence after several sessions dominated by stagflation fears. Semiconductor and mega-cap technology shares led gains, showing that the market still favors AI and long-duration growth themes whenever rates stabilize. However, the Fed minutes added an important layer of caution. Policymakers appear increasingly concerned that inflation could remain persistently above target, with many officials now more open to further tightening if price pressures fail to ease. That hawkish tone limits how aggressively equities can rally, especially with Treasury yields still well above early May levels. For today, markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to: Any headlines on US-Iran negotiations Oil price direction Treasury yield movements Follow-through reaction to Nvidia’s earnings US macro data, including PMIs, jobless claims, and housing data A softer economic data set combined with stable or lower oil prices would likely support another advance in the S&P 500, particularly in technology and growth sectors. Conversely, renewed geopolitical tensions, rising crude prices, or stronger-than-expected data that pushes yields higher could cap upside momentum. Overall, the near-term tone for the S&P 500 remains cautiously constructive. Nvidia’s results confirmed that AI-driven earnings momentum remains intact, while easing oil prices temporarily reduced inflation fears. But with the Fed becoming more hawkish and yields still elevated, the market may struggle to sustain a broad breakout unless inflation and geopolitical risks continue to moderate. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 7495 Resistance Level 2: 7550 Resistance Level 3: 7595 Support Level 1: 7318 Support Level 2: 7274 Support Level 3: 7240 The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Trade Nation (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk.Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73.1% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.