JPM Coiling Into Earnings? July 13

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JPM Coiling Into Earnings? July 13JPMorgan Chase & Co.NYSE:JPMBullBearInsights JPM is coming into the week with the daily trend still bullish, but price is sitting directly under a major resistance area around 339.50–342. On the 15-minute chart, JPM is tightening between rising support and descending resistance near 336–337. This kind of compression can create a strong move, but earnings and CPI are both coming Tuesday, so I would not try to predict the direction before the news. Daily Chart The daily structure remains bullish with higher lows and a strong move from the 290 area into the 340 area. JPM is now consolidating near the highs instead of giving back the entire move. That tells me buyers are still interested, but they have not been able to clear the 339.50–341.91 resistance zone yet. A daily close above 341.91 would confirm a new breakout and give JPM room to continue toward 345, 350 and possibly 360. The larger trend remains healthy while price stays above the recent breakout area around 314–315. For this week, however, the more important short-term support is around 330–332.50. 15-Minute Chart The 15-minute chart shows JPM forming a tightening triangle around 336.50. The immediate resistance is around 337.30, followed by Friday’s high near 339.41. The immediate support is around 335.75, with another important support near 334. This is a decision area. A break above 337.30 could send price back toward 339.41 and the 340 call wall. A loss of 335.75 could bring 334 and 332.50 back into play. I would not take the first breakout candle without confirmation. With earnings approaching, JPM could easily make a quick move in one direction and then reverse. Key Levels Resistance: 337.30, 339.41, 340, 341.91, 345, 350, 355, 360 Support: 336, 335.75, 334, 332.50, 330.80–330, 327.50, 320, 314–315 GEX Positioning The GEX chart shows JPM trading between support near 335 and the main nearby call wall around 340. That makes 335–340 the most important short-term range. While JPM remains inside this zone, positive GEX could keep price pinned and create choppy movement. The better directional trade may come only after price clearly accepts above 340 or breaks below 335. Above 340, the next GEX levels are 345, 350, 355 and 360. The strongest upside targets appear to be 340 first, followed by 350 and 360. On the downside, 332.50 is the first important put level. Below that, 330 becomes the next support, followed by the high-volume level around 327.50. The 332.50–327.50 area could become the downside target zone if JPM loses 335 after the earnings reaction. Bullish Scenario For the bullish setup, I want JPM to hold above 335.75–336 and reclaim 337.30. A break above 337.30 would put 339.41 and 340 back in play. The stronger confirmation would be a 15-minute close above 340 followed by a successful retest. That would show JPM is accepting above the call wall instead of only producing a temporary earnings spike. Above 340, I will watch 341.91, 345 and 350. If buyers can hold above 350, the next larger targets would be 355 and 360. Bearish Scenario For the bearish setup, I will watch for another rejection around 337.30–340. If JPM rejects that area and then loses 335.75, the short-term structure would begin weakening. Below 335.75, I will watch 334 and the 332.50 put level. A confirmed break below 332.50 could open the move toward 330 and 327.50. If 327.50 fails, the earnings gap could continue lower toward 320 and potentially the larger daily breakout area around 314–315. Earnings and CPI Risk JPMorgan is scheduled to release its second-quarter results at approximately 7:00 a.m. ET Tuesday, July 14, followed by its earnings call at 8:30 a.m. ET. CPI is also scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET that morning, so JPM could react to both company results and the broader interest-rate move at nearly the same time. Because of that combination, Tuesday could produce a large opening gap, wide candles and quick reversals. I would let the first move settle and wait for the opening range, VWAP and a retest of one of the major GEX levels. Options Outlook The chart shows IV Rank around 29.6 and average implied volatility near 26, but earnings can quickly change option pricing. Holding short-dated contracts through the announcement carries major gap and volatility-crush risk. For an intraday trade, I would rather wait until after the earnings reaction and trade the confirmed move. Calls become more attractive if JPM holds above 340 after the initial volatility. Puts become more attractive if JPM loses 335 and confirms below 332.50. Conclusion JPM remains bullish on the daily chart, but price is still trapped below major resistance. Above 340, I will watch 341.91, 345 and 350. Below 335, I will watch 332.50, 330 and 327.50. The main range is 335–340. With earnings and CPI arriving Tuesday, the cleanest setup will likely come after JPM breaks this range and confirms the direction instead of during the first volatile move.