USDCAD coils under a broken base. My short arms on the breakUSD/CADOANDA:USDCADNambou_SignalsUSDCAD | Short swing setup (1D) THE SETUP USDCAD topped near 1.4247 in late June and has carved a rounded top, rolling over into a clean run of lower highs. Price is now pressing the 1.3950 base, the shelf it broke out from in mid-June. I am not short yet. This trade only arms if the base gives way. CONFLUENCES - Daily trend has flipped down: rounded top, lower highs off the 1.4247 peak - 1.3950 is real structure: the June breakout base, now the line in the sand - Momentum is with the move: a run of heavy red daily candles into the level - Clean invalidation just above (1.4010), keeping RR to TP1 near 1.5 FUNDAMENTALS CAD firmed after the Bank of Canada held at 2.25%, and a softer US inflation print has the dollar heading for a weekly loss. This is data-sensitive, but no BoC or Fed event lands before these levels are in play. TRADE PLAN (conditional, marked on the chart) Trigger: daily close below 1.3950. No close, no trade. Entry: sell the retest of 1.3950 to 1.3965 from below. Stop: 1.4010 (base reclaimed = idea wrong). TP1: 1.3880, TP2: 1.3820, TP3: 1.3770. Invalidation: a daily close back above 1.4010, or price never breaking 1.3950 within the window shown. Are you fading the retest, or waiting to see 1.3950 break on volume first? Follow for updates, posted on this idea as it plays out. Not financial advice. Trade your own plan and manage risk.