POSSIBLE NASDAQ SHORT 14 JULY 2026US Nas 100OANDA:NAS100USDGarethxsavageHigher-Timeframe Bias The chart has transitioned from a bullish impulse into a bearish market structure. Key observations: The previous 15m bullish structure was broken (IBOS) after the strong rejection from the highs. Price has since produced: Lower highs Lower lows Strong impulsive bearish legs Weak corrective rallies That sequence suggests bears remain in control. Current Price Action The bounce from around 29,100–29,200 looks corrective rather than impulsive. Reasons: The recovery candles are relatively small. Momentum is weaker than the previous selloff. Buyers have yet to reclaim any significant swing high. Until a meaningful Change of Character (ChoCh) occurs to the upside, rallies are more likely to be retracements than trend reversals. Selling Area I marked Plan A zone around 29,560–29,620 makes sense because it aligns with: Previous support becoming resistance Internal liquidity A likely lower-high formation Discount-to-premium retracement of the latest bearish leg This is exactly where I'd expect sellers to become active if the bearish trend is intact. What I'd Like to See Before Selling Rather than selling immediately into the zone, I'd wait for confirmation. For example: Price trades into the supply area. Liquidity is swept above an intraday high. A bearish ChoCh forms on the lower timeframe (1m–5m). A lower high develops. Enter on the pullback after confirmation. That avoids fading a rally that's still expanding. Bearish Targets If sellers defend zone A: Target 1 Recent swing low around 29,300 Target 2 Liquidity below 29,180–29,100 Target 3 Major support around 29,010 If momentum increases, price could eventually revisit the large demand area near 28,850, which matches the larger take-profit region. What Invalidates the Bearish Idea The bearish thesis weakens if price: Closes decisively above Plan A resistance. Produces a strong bullish ChoCh. Begins printing higher highs and higher lows. Holds above approximately 29,610 after a retest. In that case, waiting for Plan B zone near 29,800–29,900 would be the more disciplined approach Overall Read At the moment I'd describe the market as: Trend: Bearish Momentum: Bearish Current bounce: Corrective until proven otherwise Best trade location: Wait for price to retrace into the marked supply zone and look for lower-timeframe bearish confirmation rather than anticipating the reversal. That approach keeps me trading with the prevailing structure instead of trying to predict where the bounce will end.