A near unanimous poll result leaves little room for surprise on the decision itself, so the real interest lies in the pace beyond Thursday, whether the BOK delivers a single further move to 3% this year or opens the door to back to back hikes if the won keeps weakening. The BOK's move also confirms South Korea is following, rather than leading, a regional pattern already seen in Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia and the Philippines, all responding to the same oil driven inflation shock out of the Middle East. A weaker won compounding imported cost pressure gives the hawkish case extra weight, and markets are likely to watch the accompanying rhetoric as closely as the rate decision itself for clues on the 2027 path.---South Korea is about to join the regional tightening club, and markets already expect a second move.Summary:36 of 37 economists polled by Reuters expect the Bank of Korea to raise its base rate to 2.75% at its July 16 meeting, the first hike in more than three years28 of 31 economists expect a further hike to 3.00% by the end of the year, with one forecast at 3.25% and two at 2.75%Median forecasts point to the rate reaching 3.25% in the first quarter of 2027 and holding there through at least the end of that year, 25 basis points higher than the May surveyConsumer inflation rose to a two and a half year high of 3.2% in June, above the BOK's 2% target for a fourth straight month, and is expected to average around 3% through the second half of the yearBOK Governor Shin Hyun-song said higher rates were necessary given inflation is expected to exceed target for a considerable period, driven by high oil prices tied to the US-Israeli war on IranThe won has weakened more than 4% this year and is expected to weaken further by end July, adding to imported cost pressure, while central banks in Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia and the Philippines have already tightened policySouth Korea's central bank is on course to raise interest rates on Thursday for the first time in more than three years, with a further hike expected by the end of the year, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Thirty six of thirty seven economists surveyed between July 7 and 13 expect the Bank of Korea to lift its base rate to 2.75% at Thursday's meeting, while 28 of 31 expect a second increase to 3.00% by year end.The case for tightening has been building for months. Consumer inflation accelerated to 3.2% in June, a two and a half year high and the fourth consecutive month above the BOK's 2% target, and is expected to average around 3% through the rest of the year. BOK Governor Shin Hyun-song has said raising rates is necessary given inflation is likely to stay above target for a considerable period, pointing to high oil prices stemming from the US-Israeli war on Iran as the primary driver. Stronger growth, a first quarter expansion at its fastest pace in nearly six years, alongside rising house prices and elevated household debt, has given policymakers further room to act.Beyond Thursday, the path looks equally hawkish. May's dot plot already showed a majority of board members expecting the policy rate to reach 3% within six months, and the median forecast in the latest poll points to a rate of 3.25% by the first quarter of 2027, held through at least the end of that year, a quarter point higher than the May survey implied. Economists expect inflation to average 2.7% this year and 2.2% next year, with growth of 2.8% in 2026 easing to 2.1% in 2027.A weaker won is adding to the pressure. The currency has fallen more than 4% so far this year and is expected to weaken further by the end of July, pushing up the cost of imported raw materials even as verbal intervention from policymakers has so far had limited effect. That currency weakness is expected to be a key focus for the BOK, with some economists watching for signals that could open the door to back to back rate hikes, even if that remains a minority view rather than the base case. South Korea's expected move follows central banks in Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia and the Philippines, all of which have already tightened policy in response to the same oil driven inflation shock. This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.