Sandisk (SNDK) LONG — 1D ALMA Setup (WR 90%)Sandisk CorporationBATS:SNDKGoldfinch_song█ SETUP SNDK · 1D · long only. (Context: Sandisk — NAND flash / enterprise SSD · WDC spin-off — AI data-center storage beta, not GPU silicon.) ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 1 bar to add / 1 bar to exit, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry. Strategy Tester (SNDK 1D): Win rate 90% · profit factor 6.5 · max drawdown 16% Avg winning trade +27.0% · avg losing trade −21.5% Typical hold ~16×1D bars on winners — NAND mean-reversion grid · 41-trade sample ═ █ WHY NOW Friday US cash open — fresh 1D ALMA long on 17 Jul 13:30 UTC ~$1,411. Re-arm on the same daily Averaging template after the prior ladder stopped on the 16 Jul open (~$1,615). First lot of a new pyramid (1 of 4) into the NAND wash — bar-close signal, not a discretionary “buy the memory dip” call. Hard stop zone −10% from fill ~$1,270. Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop. ═ █ MACRO Sector: SNDK = SanDisk · NAND flash / enterprise SSD · WDC spin-off — AI data-center storage beta via NBM / LTA ASP rails; peers MU, Samsung, SK Hynix, WDC, $STX. Fundamental (30d → 18 Jul): Street still strongly Bid after a PT cascade — Citi ~$2,500 · Bernstein ~$3,000 · BofA ~$2,500 · Goldman ~$2,200 · Wedbush ~$2,000 · Evercore ~$3,100 (13 Jul) on ~$62B minimum committed NBM revenue; ~18/22 Buy · consensus PT ~$2,100+. Company FQ4 guide ~$7.75–8.25B rev / EPS ~$30–33. Tape ignored the upgrades: Meta Compute scare early Jul · Samsung sell-the-news · “memory glut” narrative → −30%+ from ATH · ~$1,425 into 17 Jul. Next calendar: FQ4 ~05 Aug · Investor Day ~13 Aug. Tape (17 Jul): Re-entry into post-flush mean-reversion after the July memory wash — no fresh company IR print on the fill bar. Window read: mixed — earnings power / Street PT stack +, multiple compression and late-window tape −. Execution is 1D ALMA at ~$1,411 — not an earnings preview or PT-chase trade. ═ █ OUTLOOK Positive factors - 90% WR · PF 6.5 · avg win +27.0% vs avg loss −21.5% · ~16×1D bars — high hit-rate daily template (41-trade sample) - Fresh re-entry inside the 24h window after a clean template stop — same rules that exited, same rules that re-armed - Fundamental — Street / NBM stack: record PT wave into mid-Jul · Evercore ~$3,100 on ~$62B committed NBM revenue · Micron “NAND very tight” backdrop still frames the cycle — Street earnings-power thesis intact under the wash - ALMA — execution + HTF stretch below: 1D Signal SHORT · S:5 vs SAvg:2.5 · OVERHEAT-S · 4H Signal SHORT · S:5 vs SAvg:3.0 · OVERHEAT-S · 3D / 1W also OVERHEAT-S — time stretched below the band into the fill (mean-reversion fuel) - EMA — 4H below-session stretch: 4H Below · 4H Cur S:9 vs Avg S:7.0 · +23.4% dev — sell-time overheated on the 4H clock into the daily add - SMC — demand at fill: 4H / 1D FVG Enter Bull ~$1,411 (16 Jul) — bid-side inefficiency tags the re-entry print (4H B69% · 1D B76%) - VWAP — support reaction: chart touch Support ~$1,384 (from 30 Mar) with spot above — discount reaction zone under the fill - Weekly EMA still Above with large −Dev — slower uptrend context intact while daily mean-reverts the wash Negative factors - Fundamental — tape vs Street divergence: Meta Compute / glut fears · Samsung contagion · −30%+ from ATH · PT hikes ignored into ~$1,425 — multiple compression (P/E ~60x+) dominates near-term risk/reward - Event path: FQ4 ~05 Aug + Investor Day ~13 Aug can reprice ASP / NBM guidance either way before a typical ~16-bar hold completes - EMA — daily / 3D below still young vs average: 1D Below · 1D Cur S:5 vs Avg S:7.4 · +21.8% · 3D Below · 3D Cur S:1 vs Avg S:8.2 — sell-time not mature on 1D/3D; downside can extend before the bounce completes - SMC — bear OB on the daily fill bar: 1D OB New Bear ~$1,411 alongside bull FVG — two-way housekeeping at the add, not a clean one-way reclaim - VWAP — overhead active levels: Active Support ~$1,651 sits above spot (reclaim needed) · Active Resistance ~$1,855 — ceilings for any bounce - PA: Bearish FVG formed — supply inefficiency still in the recent tape - TL AI: Support Break (2 bars) · B79% / Br21% (14 Jul) — breakdown context still on the board - Memory-complex headline risk (AI hardware wash / peer MU beta) can gap the daily bar - Past backtest ≠ live fills; avg loss −21.5% is wide — size stays boring Takeaway: the 1D ALMA strategy and 90% WR support the re-arm into a multi-TF OVERHEAT-S band with bull FVG at ~$1,411, and Street NBM/PT stack still frames the long-cycle thesis — but glut-scare tape, young 1D/3D below-sessions, VWAP reclaim overhead, and Aug FQ4 event risk cap upside — net read is a strategy-backed NAND wash mean-reversion into a mixed fund window, not a clean Street-PT reclaim; nominal risk stays on the −10% hard stop / Pine exit path. Base case: 1D ALMA holds · OVERHEAT-S mean-reverts · drift toward the ~$1,651 VWAP shelf if memory beta stabilises ahead of FQ4. Bear case: fail 1D ALMA · glut / peer memory flush reasserts · −10% from ~$1,411 toward ~$1,270 · Aug guide miss gaps the open. Chart: SNDK 1D — ALMA Averaging Strategy. Educational idea. Live position — past backtest ≠ future results. NFA.