EURUSDEuro vs. US DollarFX:EURUSDAsifAwan11What I see 1. Higher Timeframe Trend The overall 4H trend is still bearish. Price is making Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). The rally from 1.1362 looks like a retracement, not yet a trend reversal. So selling has the higher probability until the market proves otherwise. 2. Resistance Zone (1.1480) This is the key level. Why it's important: Previous 1H Lower High. Strong supply zone. Previous selling pressure. Likely liquidity resting above the highs. I would expect institutions to defend this area. Option 1: Buy the breakout Rating: 7.5/10 Only if a 4H candle closes convincingly above 1.1480. Then expect: Pullback Retest Continuation toward 1.1525 → 1.1565 → 1.1600 Don't buy the first spike. Option 2: Buy the retest Rating: 9/10 This is my preferred bullish setup. Wait for: 4H close above 1.1480 Price returns to 1.1480 Bullish rejection Enter long This provides much better confirmation and risk-to-reward. Option 3: Sell from current price Rating: 8.5/10 Since the higher timeframe remains bearish, selling now can make sense only if price shows bearish confirmation (for example, a bearish engulfing candle or rejection on the 1H/4H chart). I would avoid selling solely because price is below resistance. Suggested framework: Entry: Around 1.1435–1.1445 after bearish confirmation. Stop Loss: Above 1.1485–1.1495. Targets: TP1: 1.1400 TP2: 1.1362 TP3: 1.1320 This gives a reasonable reward relative to the risk if the bearish trend resumes. My Trading Plan 🟢 Bullish Scenario (30–35% probability) Break and close above 1.1480 Retest Buy TP: 1.1525 / 1.1565 / 1.1600 🔴 Bearish Scenario (65–70% probability) Fail to break 1.1480, or reject from current levels with bearish confirmation Sell TP1: 1.1400 TP2: 1.1362 TP3: 1.1320 What I Would Do I would not chase a breakout. Instead, I'd wait for one of two high-quality setups: Buy only after a confirmed 4H breakout above 1.1480 followed by a successful retest. Sell if price rejects resistance or prints a clear bearish signal around current levels or near 1.1480. That approach aligns with the prevailing 4H bearish structure while still allowing participation if the market genuinely changes character.