Geopolitical Risks and Interest Rate Hikes: Gold Falls Below $4,Gold / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:XAUUSDElina-XauGeopolitical Risks and Interest Rate Hikes: Gold Falls Below $4,000 Mark On July 14th, in early Asian trading, spot gold briefly fell below the psychological barrier of $4,000 per ounce, currently trading weakly around $4,020. Despite the sudden escalation of the Middle East conflict due to the US-Iran clashes—Trump's announcement of restoring the naval blockade against Iran and imposing a 20% fee on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to surge by over 9%—gold failed to attract safe-haven buying. Instead, soaring inflation expectations fueled a sharp rise in expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, leading to a counter-pressure on gold prices. 🔍 The core contradiction lies in: Geopolitical Risks → Soaring Oil Prices → Renewed Inflation Concerns → Federal Reserve Forced to Raise Interest Rates → Stronger Dollar, Soaring US Treasury Yields → Gold Under Pressure. This is both the result of the convergence of geopolitical events and monetary policy expectations, and also the worst-case scenario currently facing gold. 📊【Technical Analysis: Downtrend Channel Fully Opened, Rebounds are Like "Delivering Blows"】 Daily Chart – Trend Has Turned Bearish Yesterday, gold prices were pressured below the moving average band and fluctuated weakly. After the escalation of tensions between the US and Iran in the evening, the US dollar index surged, and gold extended its downward trend again, reaching a low near 3990. The daily chart closed with a solid, medium-sized bearish candlestick. The price broke strongly below all short-term support levels of the 5, 10, and 20-day moving averages. Short-term moving averages have simultaneously turned downwards, forming a dense resistance zone. The Bollinger Bands have widened significantly downwards, fully opening the downtrend channel. 1-Hour/4-Hour Chart – Stepped Downtrend, Relentless Decline The 4-hour chart shows a standard stepped downtrend structure: highs are continuously moving lower, and lows are constantly being refreshed. The price has been closely following the lower Bollinger Band throughout. The MA20 and MA60 moving averages have been continuously suppressing the market, and each small rebound has encountered heavy selling pressure. The MACD fast and slow lines have formed a deep bearish crossover with increasing volume. The current slight stabilization at the low level is merely an oversold correction, and after the correction is complete, the downtrend is likely to continue. 💡 The 3880-3890 area, the starting point of last year's final upward wave, is a potential medium-term target. Whether the short-term trend will continue downward or bottom out and rebound can be determined by a single piece of news—and that news is coming tonight! ⚠️【Key Risk Events Today: CPI Data + Fed Speech】 This trading day will see the release of the US June CPI data, and the Fed Chair will also appear before the House Financial Services Committee for a hearing. Market expectations for Fed policy have quickly shifted hawkish due to the oil price shock—FedWatch shows that the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has surged to 75%. If the CPI data is stronger than expected, rate hike expectations will further intensify, and the dollar and US Treasury yields are expected to continue to rise, putting new selling pressure on gold. If the CPI is weaker than expected, gold prices may experience a brief oversold rebound, but the downtrend remains unchanged, and any rebound should be seen as an opportunity to sell at higher prices. 🎯【Today's Trading Strategy: Primarily Sell on Rallies】 Based on both technical and fundamental analysis, today's short-term strategy is clear: Sell on rallies, as rallies present opportunities. Short Strategy (Primary Strategy): Sell in batches around 4030-4040, with a stop-loss above 4060. The initial target is 3980-3960, with a further target of 3940 if it breaks through. Long Strategy (Secondary Strategy, Light Positions, Quick Entry and Exit): Consider a light long position on the first touch of 3960-3970, with a stop-loss below 3940. The target is the 3990-4000 area. Strict stop-loss orders are essential; take profits quickly. ⚠️ Risk Warning: If the hourly chart strongly breaks above 4050 and closes above it, short positions should be temporarily avoided. Volatility will be significantly amplified before and after the release of data tonight; please control your position size, strictly adhere to stop-loss orders, and avoid greed! 💬【Finally, a few words with a touch of emotion】 Watching gold prices being relentlessly hammered down from their highs is disheartening. But that's how the market works—it won't change its trajectory based on your position. What we need to do is not fight the market, but respect the trend and follow the rhythm. 📢 The downtrend is clear. Every rebound is an opportunity provided by the market, not a reason to "buy the dip." Don't try to guess the bottom; the bottom is formed, not guessed. ❤️ If you agree with my analysis, please: 👍 Like this post to let more people see it 💬 Comment "strategy" to share your thoughts 🔔 Follow me for daily pre-market gold technical analysis, helping you understand the trend and seize the rhythm!