$ABT When the Reason for the Markdown Reverses

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$ABT When the Reason for the Markdown ReversesAbbott LaboratoriesBATS:ABTImmaculateTonyWhat I'm seeing ABT peaked ~$137 in mid-2025 and bled 40% to $81.97 a textbook Weinstein Stage 4 markdown while the broader market ran. The week of July 13 changed the tape: a massive bullish engulfing candle on the highest weekly volume in months, reclaiming $100 off the Fib 0% floor. - Fib 0% ($81.97) tested and rejected hard - Weekly close $100.68, back above the 200-week EMA zone - 4H structure flipped: price above Value Area High ($100.67), above anchored VWAP/PoC at $95.10 — recent buyers are in profit, and the high-volume node at $95 is now the floor, not the ceiling - Weekly RSI recovering from deep oversold - Insider buying into the lows, zero selling Why it matters The markdown was never an earnings problem. Revenue grew every quarter through the decline. The stock was repriced on one thing: the April guidance cut from Exact Sciences dilution, plus litigation and competition fears stacked on top. On July 16, that exact driver reversed. Q2 beat. Full-year guidance *raised* back to $5.45–$5.60. The market marked the stock down on lowered guidance and just got handed raised guidance at a 23-handle lower price. When the cause of a Stage 4 gets invalidated, the markdown loses its fuel. That's the setup. Not the confirmation the setup. The levels - $94–95 — line in the sand. VWAP + PoC + volume shelf. Bulls must defend this or the reversal thesis dies. - $103.18 — first real test (Fib 0.382). Acceptance above opens the next leg. - $112–116 — the decision zone (Fib 0.618 + prior structure). This is where a bounce becomes a trend change or gets sold. - $137.49 — prior high. Not a target yet. A destination only if the base builds. What I expect Default assumption after 40% of markdown: overhead supply exists at every level above. One candle even a monster proves a floor, not a trend. Two conditions, no predictions: Weekly acceptance above $103 = first evidence the repricing is done and Stage 1 accumulation is underway. Until then, this is a violent bounce with a good story. Loss of $94 on a weekly close = the engulfing candle was distribution's gift, not accumulation's start. Back to watchlist. Strong business + reversed catalyst + reclaimed structure earns real attention. It does not earn full size. Patience is a position. Not financial advice educational breakdown of my process.