Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnADVERTISEMENTRich DupreySun, July 19, 2026 at 6:06 PM GMT+2 4 min readQuick ReadHBM will consume 30% of total DRAM wafer capacity by 2027, leaving supply able to meet only 60% of projected demand.New fabs take anywhere from 12 to 24 months to reach peak output, and UBS does not expect DRAM supply and demand to balance until Q2 2028.Morgan Stanley projects memory will account for 40% of AI capital expenditures by 2030, signaling demand that outlasts today's shortage.Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Micron Technology didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.The AI boom has transformed the memory chip market into one of technology's hottest -- and tightest -- segments. As hyperscale data centers race to build AI infrastructure, demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) has exploded, driving DRAM revenue sharply higher while keeping supply under intense pressure.TechAnimationStock / Shutterstock.comThat imbalance isn't likely to disappear anytime soon. TrendForce projects HBM wafer input at the industry's three largest manufacturers will account for 22% of total DRAM wafer input by the end of 2026, rising to 30% by the end of 2027. Every wafer devoted to HBM is one that can't be used to produce conventional DRAM, keeping supply constrained and prices elevated.For investors expecting a quick cooldown, the data points to a slower path. While new capacity is coming, meaningful relief is unlikely before 2028.Cloud providers and enterprises are reserving HBM capacity years in advance, prompting manufacturers to prioritize these premium chips over traditional DDR5 memory.TrendForce estimates HBM will account for about 9% of total DRAM bit supply in 2026 before climbing to 13% in 2027. Because HBM requires more advanced manufacturing and consumes more wafer capacity than conventional DRAM, production of standard memory remains constrained.According to Counterpoint Research, Samsung controls roughly 38% of the global DRAM market, followed by SK Hynix (NASDAQ:SKHY) at 29% and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) at 22%. Their recent earnings strength has been driven largely by AI demand.Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Micron Technology didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.Unlike previous boom cycles, manufacturers have resisted aggressive expansion. Industry capital spending is expected to rise from $53.7 billion in 2025 to $61.3 billion in 2026, but most of that investment is dedicated to HBM rather than broad DRAM capacity. Some forecasts suggest supply could still meet only about 60% of projected demand by the end of 2027, helping keep prices elevated.Terms and Privacy PolicyEU DSA contactPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore Info