$CRGYCrescent Energy Company Class ABATS:CRGYDillyDallyGallyCompleted a H&S drop. hard bounce off previous support.. windfall oil/gas war profits are the lever (delever(age)) that gets this elevated. KKR supplies strong capital markets knowledge/support, long term value accretion, Scenario framework Prob-weighted FV $15.15 vs spot $9.52 → P/FV 0.63×, expected return +59%. Bear −58%. ScenarioProbFV/shvs SpotKey assumptionBear33%$4.00−58%Sustained sub-$58 WTI; EBITDAX to $2.0B at a held 3.25×Base42%$16.50+73%Mid-cycle $68 WTI; $2.6B normalized EBITDAX at 4.0×Bull20%$25.00+163%$78 WTI; $3.1B EBITDAX, 4.25×, convert if-convertedBlue-sky5%$38.00+299%Structural supply shock, $95+ sustained; full peer re-rateProb-weighted100%$15.15+59% Bear (33%) — all three: WTI averages < $58/bbl across 2027 (anchored: EIA STEO Jul 7 sees Brent averaging $65 in 2027 → WTI ~$61; bear is a further ~5% undershoot) FY27 Adj. EBITDAX < $2.2B (vs. FY26E ~$2.85B) Fixed dividend cut or suspended by Q4 2027 Base (42%) — both: WTI averages $65–72/bbl through 2028 (anchored: forward curve, WTI $71.41 Jul 10) Net leverage ≤ 1.5× by Q4 2027 print AND oil volumes held flat (±3%) vs. FY26 at capex ≤ $1.5B Bull (20%) — both: WTI averages > $76/bbl through 2028 Realized synergies > $150M run-rate by Q4 2026 (anchored: $120M captured at Q1, = 120% of original target) AND EV/EBITDAX re-rates to ≥ 4.25× (peer average 3.8–4.5×) CRGY — Condensed FV path (prose) Spot $9.52. Today. Bear $4.00 (−58%), base $16.50 (+73%), bull $25.00 (+163%), prob-weighted $15.15 (+59%). Live catalyst ±8% · Aug 2026. Base-case dividend yield on cost 5.0%. Year-end 2026. Bear $4.13 (−57%), base $17.33 (+82%), bull $26.37 (+177%), prob-weighted $15.92 (+67%). Live catalyst ±15% · Feb 2027. Div YoC 5.0%. Year-end 2027. Bear $4.42 (−54%), base $19.24 (+102%), bull $29.53 (+210%), prob-weighted $17.69 (+86%). No dated live catalyst — inventory empty from here. Div YoC 5.0%. Year-end 2028. Bear $4.73 (−50%), base $21.35 (+124%), bull $33.08 (+247%), prob-weighted $19.66 (+106%). Div YoC 5.7%. Year-end 2029. Bear $5.06 (−47%), base $23.70 (+149%), bull $37.04 (+289%), prob-weighted $21.85 (+129%). Div YoC 6.3%. Year-end 2030. Bear $5.41 (−43%), base $26.31 (+176%), bull $41.49 (+336%), prob-weighted $24.29 (+155%). Div YoC 6.9%. Year-end 2031. Bear $5.79 (−39%), base $29.20 (+207%), bull $46.47 (+388%), prob-weighted $27.00 (+184%). Div YoC 7.6%. Year-end 2032. Bear $6.20 (−35%), base $32.41 (+240%), bull $52.05 (+447%), prob-weighted $30.02 (+215%). Div YoC 8.2%. Year-end 2033. Bear $6.63 (−30%), base $35.98 (+278%), bull $58.29 (+512%), prob-weighted $33.39 (+251%). Div YoC 8.8%. Year-end 2034. Bear $7.09 (−25%), base $39.94 (+320%), bull $65.29 (+586%), prob-weighted $37.13 (+290%). Div YoC 9.5%. Year-end 2035. Bear $7.59 (−20%), base $44.33 (+366%), bull $73.12 (+668%), prob-weighted $41.30 (+334%). Div YoC 10.1%.