NQ - Monthly Outlook E-mini Nasdaq-100 FuturesCME_MINI_DL:NQ1!VIAQUANTThere has been a significant development on the monthly chart for Nasdaq 100 names. What I am seeing is a similar structure to the last cycle that could still lead prices toward a capitulation event heading into Q4 of this year. There are a few Fibonacci extension levels worth highlighting, along with what is currently developing on the monthly RSI. The Fibonacci Levels The first level I have outlined is the 3.618 Fibonacci extension from the last macro trend. This marked the top in late 2021 and could play a role with future price action. The next Fibonacci extension levels come from the more recent trend spanning the 2021 high to the 2022 low. The 1.618 extension became the floor in Q1 2026 before the push to new all time highs. Then, last month the monthly candle closed right at the 2.618 extension before this selloff began. This is one of the first major signals of a potential reversal, aligning closely with the $30,000 psychological level. The RSI Structure Now the RSI is beginning to develop a structure very similar to what occurred before the last bear market. Looking back at 2021, I have outlined a black trendline representing a series of higher lows in trend momentum. This upward momentum trajectory lasted from December 2018 to April 2022. Once momentum broke below that trendline on the monthly, the trend flipped bearish and the 2022 bear market capitulation began. That breakdown came right after a bearish divergence formed on the monthly RSI. Price made a higher high while the RSI simultaneously printed a lower high, signaling that although price was still pushing to new highs, the underlying strength behind that move was already fading. That divergence was the early warning sign that eventually gave way to the full trend breakdown and bear market that followed. What Is Happening Now Currently I am seeing something very similar develop. There has been an upward trajectory in trend momentum since the bear market lows of 2022 (marked by the black trendline). Now price has just created a double top/bearish divergence on the monthly RSI. Therefore, what will be most important to watch is when the RSI reaches this momentum trendline. If momentum breaks below it, that could signal a much larger selloff into a bear market before the next leg begins, similar to what unfolded last cycle. Of course this is all playing out on the monthly chart, so this structure is likely to develop over a longer timespan. But it is something worth flagging as price enters Q3 and Q4.