AUD/JPY Poised for Further RiseAUD/JPYOANDA:AUDJPYNouzTraderAUDJPY is currently in a medium-term consolidation range after recovering from its major structural low. - Market Structure: The medium-term trend is in a Bullish Recovery phase (Trend Shift). After establishing an accumulation base around 111,200 (lower blue box), the price successfully formed an impulsive upward structure that broke the previous minor bearish structure. However, this upward movement has begun to stall and has moved sideways (compressing) in recent days. - Current Price Action: At 112,491, the last H4 candlestick countered the previous decline (minor rebound) but remains trapped within the consolidation inside bar. The price range is squeezed between the lower brown horizontal line around 112,200 and the upper brown horizontal line around 112,900. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Key Zones: - Resistance/Supply Zone: Around 112,900 (nearest upper brown line) and around 113,400 - 113,541 (topmost solid yellow/green box). - Support/Demand Zone: Around 112,150 - 112,200 (nearest lower brown line) and around 111,200 - 111,350 (major demand floor, bottommost blue box). ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Orderflow / Volume Profile Analysis (Fixed Range VPVR) The Volume Profile data on the right provides a very clear picture of institutional liquidity distribution: - Local High Volume Node (HVN) / Point of Control (POC): The current price (112,491) is right in the thickest volume bump area (indicated by the green/blue histogram on the right). This indicates that the 112,400-112,500 area is the Fair Value Area, where the most massive transactions occur during the current consolidation. This area acts as a magnet for price support. - Upper Low Volume Node (LVN): Above the 112,600-112,800 range, there is a volume vacuum. If the price manages to break through the current upper HVN, it is projected to rapidly advance through the LVN towards the next liquidity area at the upper brown line (112,900). - Lower LVN: Below 112,100, there is a significant volume vacuum before re-accumulating in the lower accumulation area (111,500). If the lower brown line at 112,200 is breached, the price will decline aggressively due to the lack of holding transaction orders. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Elliott Wave Analysis If we map the wave cycle movement on the H4 timeframe: - Wave Structure: The aggressive vertical upward impulse from the lower blue box (111,200) towards the 112,700 area is calculated as an initial impulsive movement, most likely Wave 1 or Wave A of a new recovery cycle. - Current Status: The sideways consolidation movement trapping the price at 112,491 is currently identified as the formation of Wave 2 or Wave B (Corrective Wave) with a flat or complex consolidation type. In theory, this sideways corrective wave intentionally erodes momentum to build compression before a major directional explosion occurs. - Projection: The next movement direction is expected to soon complete the volume accumulation phase of Wave 2. As long as the price floor at the lower brown line (112,200) is maintained by buying order flow, the market is projected to launch a new impulsive Wave 3 or Wave C impulse towards the premium resistance target. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Determining Trading Bias Based on Timeframe - Short-Term Timeframe (Intra-day / H1): Neutral / Sideways — Trapped within a narrow High Volume Node range between 112,300 and 112,600. - Medium-Term Timeframe (H4): Bullish (In Accumulation Phase) — The larger structure is dominated by a price recovery from major demand levels and is preparing for a continuation of the uptrend. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Final Conclusion: The primary bias for AUDJPY on the H4 timeframe, as a whole, is BULLISH. The next price movement after the high volume accumulation phase (High Volume Node) is completed is projected to be a REBOUND/Breakout, breaking through the upper limit of the consolidation towards the nearest target around the upper brown line at 112,900, with a potential medium-term expansion target to the premium supply area around 113,400.