USD/JPY (1W) : Breakout or Double Top?USD/JPYOANDA:USDJPYsnourUSD/JPY (1W): Critical Multi-Year Resistance Test – Breakout or Double Top? Market Overview Ticker: USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen) Timeframe: 1-Week (1W) Current Price: 162.414 Sentiment: Neutral to Aggressively Bullish (Pending Structural Confirmation) Technical Analysis 1. Major Resistance & Potential Double Top On the weekly chart, USD/JPY has rallied back to its multi-year macro horizontal resistance line around 162.00 - 162.50 (marked by the horizontal blue line). This matches the significant peak established in mid-2024. Price action is currently consolidating tightly at this psychological barrier. A clean weekly close above this level signals a continuation of the secular bull market, while rejection confirms a major multi-year double top pattern. 2. Dynamic Trendlines & Key Support The Upper Target Extension: An ascending dashed grey trendline connects the major historical swing highs. If a breakout above 162.50 is sustained, this dynamic line serves as the primary overhead target. The Macro Floor: Major multi-month horizontal support rests firmly down at 140.00 (marked by the red horizontal line), which protected the downside across late 2023 and mid-2024. 3. Technical Indicators RSI (14): Currently printing at 65.55, staying below the overbought threshold (70.00) but moving above its yellow moving average line (59.53). This shows steady, unexhausted bullish momentum heading straight into major resistance. MACD (12, 26, 9): Both the MACD line (1.696) and the Signal line (1.590) are well above zero, reflecting a strong, long-term bullish regime. Crucially, the histogram is showing expansion back into green territory, indicating fresh buyer momentum is stepping back in. Trading Setups & Scenario Planning _____ Scenario A: The Bullish Breakout (Trend Continuation) Trigger: A definitive weekly candle close above 162.50. Target 1: 170.00 (Psychological round number). Target 2: 180.00 (Intersect of the long-term ascending dashed grey trendline). Invalidation/Stop: A drop and close back below 158.00 after a fakeout. _____ Scenario B: The Bearish Rejection (Double Top Confirmation) Trigger: An exhaustion pattern on the weekly frame (e.g., a long upper wick or bearish engulfing candle) spinning out of the 162.50 zone. Target 1: 152.00 (Previous major structural inflection point). Target 2: 140.00 (The major macro horizontal baseline floor). ___________________ Will the Bank of Japan or shifting macro yields cap the Dollar here to seal a massive double top, or will the momentum break through to clear new historical highs? Let me know your technical setup in the comments!