ELEC: Don't Mistake the Bounce for a Trend Reversal Electro Cable EgyptEGX_DLY:ELECmnmabroukw36ix📊 ELEC: Don't Mistake the Bounce for a Trend Reversal ⚠️ 🏛️ Fundamental Review: 📊 Business Quality: ELEC is one of Egypt's largest cable manufacturers, supplying power, telecommunications, and infrastructure projects across Egypt and export markets. ⚡ ✅ Strengths & Catalysts: The company remains strategically important to Egypt's infrastructure sector and continues to secure major government projects. 🏗️ Its large industrial asset base and discounted valuation could support a recovery once earnings stabilize. 💎 ⚠️ Risks: Q1 2026 results deteriorated sharply, with the company reporting a significant loss while high debt, weak cash generation, and institutional selling continue to pressure sentiment. 📉 💰 Valuation: Although the stock appears inexpensive on an asset basis, improving fundamentals are still needed before it deserves a higher valuation. ⚖️ 🔍 The Pulse: If you think the stock has already turned bullish, I believe that conclusion is premature. 🚫 The recent triangle breakout projects only toward the strong resistance around 2.36 EGP, which still sits below the 200-day Moving Average. 📐 I do not recommend buying stocks that continue trading below their 200-day Moving Average. 📊 The first real bullish confirmation will be a close above the 200-day Moving Average at 2.43 EGP. ✅ The main support at 2.17 EGP remains critical, and I expect the market to retest this level before any sustainable advance. 🛡️ The stock also requires much stronger institutional buying before the trend can genuinely change. 💰 Institutional investors have withdrawn more than EGP 2.5 billion, while recent inflows of only EGP 200–300 million are not sufficient evidence of a true reversal. ⚠️ 🧱 The Key Structural Boundaries 🚀 Breakout Trigger, 2.43 EGP. A confirmed close above the 200-day Moving Average signals the first real bullish shift. 🎯 First Target, 2.60 EGP. My estimated fair value. 🎯 Second Target, 2.80 EGP. The bearish Fair Value Gap. 🎯 Final Target, 3.36 EGP. A retest of the 52-week high. ⚠️ First Warning, 2.36 EGP. The triangle breakout reaches strong resistance here, making rejection likely. 🚨 Second Warning, 2.17 EGP. A break below the main support significantly weakens the structure. 🛑 Stop Loss, 2.17 EGP. A close below the main support invalidates the current setup. 🎯 The Verdict: ELEC remains a watchlist stock rather than a buying opportunity at current levels. 👀 The recent move looks more like a technical bounce than the start of a new uptrend. 📉 Wait for a confirmed close above the 200-day Moving Average together with stronger institutional participation before considering new positions. 🤝 Until then, capital preservation should take priority over chasing early breakouts. 🛡️ --- If you like my insights, follow and boost! 🙌💙🚀 🎁 $15 TradingView Discount: 🔗 https://www.tradingview.com/pricing/?share_your_love=mnmabroukw36ix ✨💸🤑