It's all falling apart in the effort to end the war and restart freedom of navigation in Hormuz.Instead, it looks like the US will try to bring Iran to submission via a total blockade of the country. At the same time, it will try to ensure that oil continues to flow by escorting convoys of ships in the region, while charging a 20% toll.The likelihood of success of the plan is reflected in the nearly 10% rise in oil prices today. There is also an increasing risk that Iran strikes the oil infrastructure of neighbouring countries.WTI was last up $6.87 to $78.27, or 9.6% on the day.The early moves were small on expectations that Trump would TACO but he's held firm and announced the blockade. That was followed by the US navy announcing details and it will amount to a total blockade of the coutry.That's starting to sound like a war of attrition and it will be global consumers caught in the middle. With the rise in oil, gold is down $123 on expectations that major oil importers may need to sell reserves in order to preserve currency strength or to buy oil. Technically, there is clear sailing until the April low of $80.52.I also have to wonder at which point Trump will lose his appetite for the fight again. $100 oil is an obvious line in the sand and the President has always revealed a preference to keep the stock market high. Tomorrow we get the latest CPI report and Trump's stock market difficulties could be compounded by rising inflation and the possibility of a Fed rate hike as soon as this month.Much of the pressure of the war has been shielded from markets and (to some extent) the economy because of the boom in AI but stock prices can't rise indefinitely and a new round of earnings kicks off on Tuesday.The problem is that there doesn't appear to be a way out of the Hormuz quagmire. They've tried negotiations but Iran has maintained considerable leverage via Hormuz. Now Trump is making the risky bet that he can break that leverage. Trump has bought some time by freeing the ships stuck in the region but it's hard to imagine that many companies will want to sail back in. With that, global oil inventories will continue to draw and pain will ratchet up. This article was written by flc97fe4880a4b454993821fe0b770a597 at investinglive.com.