SpaceX Returns to $135: What Would Confirm a Recovery?Space Exploration Technologies CorpBATS:SPCXAlchemyMarketsHey traders, quick one here. Many of you are probably wondering whether SpaceX is becoming a value buy after falling back towards its $135 IPO offer price. Well let's examine several moving parts here... There is a structural source of demand behind the stock. SpaceX was added to the Nasdaq-100 on 7 July, meaning funds that track the index are required to hold it. This includes index products used within some retirement accounts, although it does not mean every 401(k) is automatically buying SpaceX. That demand may provide support, but it does not settle the valuation question. SpaceX does not currently have a meaningful positive P/E ratio It reported a net loss of approximately $4.94 billion in 2025, followed by another $4.28 billion loss during the first quarter of 2026. Investors are therefore paying for the expected growth of Starlink, launch services, Starship and its other developing businesses, rather than current net earnings. Now that the share price is back near the official $135 IPO offer price, what should traders look for before developing a higher-confidence bullish view? The $135 level was the price paid by investors during the offering, while public Nasdaq trading began at approximately $150. The earliest technical sign, in my opinion, would be a reclaim of the declining 1 hour 50-EMA band. SPCX has remained beneath this band throughout its recent decline, with rebounds repeatedly failing around it. That keeps the short-term structure bearish and suggests sellers are still using recoveries to reduce exposure. A move through the upper edge of the band would be the first step. However, a temporary break is not enough. Price would need to hold above the band and successfully defend it during a retest. That would indicate that the 50-EMA band is beginning to shift from resistance into support. Until that happens, the base case remains cautious. A sustained move below $135 would place SPCX beneath its IPO offer price and reopen downside price discovery. A confirmed reclaim of the EMA band would improve the short-term picture and bring $150, SpaceX’s first public Nasdaq trading level, back into focus. Key levels: $135: Official IPO offer price 1H 50-EMA band: Immediate dynamic resistance $150: First public Nasdaq trade and major recovery level - Yang