In-Depth Analysis of the 2026–2030 Cycle | Long-Term OutlookEthereum / TetherUS PERPETUAL CONTRACTBINANCE:ETHUSDT.PbackcomtraderEthereum is approaching a critical point on the 1-month (1M) timeframe. After spending several years trading at elevated price levels, the current market structure resembles the distribution phase seen in previous cycles. Below is the scenario I am closely monitoring. Market Cycle Overview Since 2020, Ethereum has gone through three distinct phases: Strong bull market during 2020–2021. Bear market in 2022. Recovery phase from 2023 to the present. At the moment, price is approaching a major long-term resistance zone where strong selling pressure has emerged multiple times in the past. Historically, every major bull cycle has been followed by a deep correction before the next long-term uptrend begins. Therefore, I do not expect Ethereum to set a new all-time high immediately. The Key Resistance Zone The pink area on the chart represents a major long-term supply zone. This is where: Long-term investors are likely to take profits. Institutional players and whales may begin distributing their positions. Selling pressure tends to outweigh buying interest. If ETH fails to close a monthly candle above this zone, the probability of a significant correction increases considerably. Correction Scenario Based on my analysis, ETH could follow this sequence: Decline toward the $560 region. Experience a technical rebound. Continue falling into the $300–400 demand zone. These price levels are not chosen randomly. They are supported by: A major monthly demand zone. The accumulation area before the 2021 bull market. A region with substantial historical liquidity. A potential long-term accumulation zone for institutional capital. If Ethereum reaches this area, it will become the most important region to watch during this cycle. Market Psychology Every cryptocurrency cycle eventually reaches a stage where most investors: Lose confidence. Sell their holdings in panic. Believe the crypto market is over. Ironically, this is often the period when large investors quietly accumulate positions. If ETH falls to the $300–400 range, many retail investors may no longer have the patience to hold their positions. The Next Bull Cycle After completing a long accumulation phase, Ethereum could begin a new upward cycle. My expected roadmap is: Form a long-term bottom. Accumulate for several months. Break the bearish market structure. Rally toward the $1,300 region. A confirmed breakout above $1,300, supported by strong trading volume, would provide a stronger foundation for higher price targets in the years ahead. What Would Invalidate This Scenario? The bearish outlook would be invalidated if: ETH closes a monthly candle decisively above the current supply zone. Trading volume confirms strong new buying interest. The monthly chart maintains a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. In that case, the probability of entering a new long-term bull market would increase significantly. Conclusion From my perspective, 2026–2028 could become a major correction period for Ethereum. The $300–400 range is the most important area to monitor if a large-scale sell-off occurs. Following a prolonged accumulation phase, ETH could recover toward $1,300 before establishing its next long-term trend. Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal market outlook based on price structure and historical market cycles. It is not financial advice. Always manage your risk appropriately, as market conditions can change at any time. What is your view? Will Ethereum continue making new highs, or will it experience one final deep correction before the next bull market?