The Music's Not Over: Spotify's Setup for a Breakout RallySpotify Technology SANYSE:SPOTVasileios_KairaktidisSPOT Spotify (SPOT): Fundamentals Confirm the Technical Setup - A Wave 5 Rally Ahead? Spotify has been in a well-defined ascending trend since its 2018 IPO, consistently respecting a long-term support and resistance channel. The one major exception was 2022–2024 (Wave 0 on the chart), when the stock lost that support entirely, a drawdown driven by the broader 2022 tech sell-off (rising rates crushing valuations on unprofitable growth names) compounded by Spotify-specific concerns: negative gross margins in the ad-supported segment, decelerating premium subscriber growth, and mounting losses that spooked investors focused on the company's path to profitability. Once the trendline was reclaimed, price rallied through Waves (1)–(2)–(3), testing the resistance of that long-term channel for a third time at the Wave (3) peak in June 2025, before correcting back down toward trendline support in Wave (4). As of now, SPOT is sitting right on the trend's support, which also aligns with the prior all-time high, now acting as support-turned-resistance-turned-support, having tested the 200-week EMA twice on the weekly chart and held both times. The MACD has just confirmed a bullish crossover, signaling building momentum, and we believe Spotify is poised to begin its Wave (5) rally from here. Under Elliott Wave theory, this reading places Spotify at the tail end of a Wave 4 correction, with the final impulsive Wave 5 leg now underway. Multiple signals are lining up here, trendline support, double 200-week EMA confirmation, MACD momentum, and Elliott Wave structure, all pointing to a bullish setup. The fundamentals back up the chart. Spotify's pricing power remains intact, ARPU is guided up 7-7.5% year-over-year, driven by a fresh round of subscription price hikes across the U.S., Estonia, and Latvia in January, following an even broader wave of increases across Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific in late 2025. The advertising business is also inflecting: programmatic ad sales now make up more than a third of total ad revenue and are growing quickly, and management has said the recently completed ad-stack rebuild positions the company to convert rising ad-supported engagement into real gross margin gains going forward. On top of that, new monetization layers are coming online, an AI-powered remix and cover tool launching as a paid premium add-on in partnership with Universal Music, plus continued expansion into audiobooks, podcasting, and fitness content. Wall Street's read reflects this: the analyst consensus sits at Strong Buy, with roughly 34 Buy ratings and zero Sell ratings, and Bank of America named Spotify one of its top Q3 picks, citing improved visibility into continued profit and free-cash-flow growth. We're not chasing yet, though: we want to see price break and hold above the descending resistance line drawn off the Wave (4) before treating this as confirmed. Until that breaks, this remains a setup to watch, not a trade to press.