Is a Super El Niño About to Reprice the World's Food?Rough Rice FuturesCBOT_DL:ZR1!UDIS_ViewA dual shock now threatens the global food system. NOAA forecasts a 63% probability of a very strong El Niño, with Pacific sea-surface temperatures already above 2.0°C. China's meteorological authorities warn the event may rival the record 1997-98 super El Niño. This climate anomaly collides with the ongoing Iran war, which has choked the Strait of Hormuz. That chokepoint handles roughly 30% of global fertilizer trade and over 36% of world urea exports, so military strikes on hubs like Qatar's Ras Laffan have triggered force majeure declarations and immediate price surges. The mechanism runs through nitrogen-intensive crops. Nitrogen accounts for over 50% of global crop nutrient demand, and rice faces severe drought across India and Southeast Asia. Farmers in high-import regions have cut fertilizer applications, directly lowering yields. Goldman Sachs projects a 15.8% surge in international food prices, while UniCredit models a 14.3% agricultural output loss worth $342 billion. Economists warn this "climateflation" could persist into late 2028, complicating central bank efforts to separate supply shocks from core inflation. For markets, the split is sharp. The article flags bullish setups in rice, copper, and Chinese coal, alongside bearish pressure on soybeans and US natural gas. Pure-play nitrogen producers like CF Industries and seed firms like Corteva stand to benefit, whereas potash-dependent Mosaic faces headwinds. On the defensive side, agribusiness increasingly leans on biotech, including CRISPR-Cas9 editing and India's salinity-tolerant DRR Dhan 100 rice. The piece also flags a rising cybersecurity threat, noting that 90% of attackers on food-chain IT-OT networks use living-off-the-land techniques. The strategic verdict is that historical benchmarks no longer apply. Geopolitical conflict and climate volatility have fused into a single, unforgiving risk to supply chains. The analysis argues food security is now a national defense priority, and that companies integrating climate resilience and digital defense will outperform those relying on yesterday's assumptions.