Nasdaq: 29,000 Is Gone. Now 28,300 Decides.US Tech 100CAPITALCOM:NAS100BazemtraderSix weeks of chop under the June highs, and this week the floor actually gave way. The +33%-since-April rally that carried Nasdaq to 30,700 is being tested by the same story that's been hammering the memory-chip names all week. TSMC's capex number, again Taiwan Semi beat on revenue and profit Thursday - but raised 2026 capex guidance from $52-56B to $60-64B, and Wall Street read that as margin pressure, not confirmed AI demand. The rout that hit Micron, AMD, Intel and Broadcom (all down 5%+ Thursday, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF -4%) spread into the broader index: the Nasdaq Composite closed -1.47% Thursday, and futures kept bleeding into the European session Friday, with Asian markets (KOSPI -6%+, Nikkei lower) extending the same move overnight. Second straight day of the same headline - first it was MU and SNDK, now it's the index itself. Where this actually breaks FIRST TEST 29,000 - already broken twice this week, now acting as a ceiling on any bounce. MAKE-OR-BREAK 28,300 - the June swing-low wick, the anchor's own floor-is-dead line, with the danger zone extending to 27,800 below it. RECLAIM 30,000 - unchanged from the anchor, the door back to the 30,700 high. The two ways this goes Reclaim: a close back above 29,000 that holds says the panic faded, targets back toward 30,000. Breakdown confirmed: a daily close below 28,300 opens 27,800 first, then 27,000 - the anchor's own bearish trigger. Between 28,300 and 29,000 - no trade. That's exactly the pocket the level is fighting inside right now. Not everyone agrees this is the top Arthur Cheong, CIO of DeFiance Capital, called this a "mid-cycle correction instead of full-cycle top" - arguing positioning got too extreme and the market recovers once the summer chop clears. Worth remembering: the same headline that broke MU and SNDK this week is now the one pressuring the index itself. Invalidation The bearish read dies on a daily close back above 30,000 - the anchor's own reclaim level, unchanged. Zooming into the 29,000 floor from my daily Nasdaq map. I will update this idea as either level actually gets confirmed on a close.