BTC Daily Setup 2026-07-16Bitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTEastsideCryptoBTC is trading at 64,610 within a range below the swing high of 65,900 from July 15. Following the impulsive rally from 62,000 to 65,900, price has entered a consolidation/pullback phase. The 1H MACD has turned bearish (negative histogram, MACD and signal lines below zero). On the 4H timeframe, however, the market structure remains intact and the 4H MACD is still positive. The broader weekly bear market, though, calls for caution on any upside breakout. The 15M and 5M charts show a tight balance around 64,600-64,700, with slightly bullish momentum on the 5M timeframe. The key levels to watch are 65,600 (major resistance) and 64,400 (key support). Scenario 1 – Primary Breakdown Toward the 62,000 Magnet Probability: 56% Within the broader weekly bear market context, the pullback breaks below 64,400. A confirmed loss of the 1H EMA cluster opens the relatively thin price zone toward 63,600, followed by the 62,000 psychological magnet. ① Entry Short at 64,300-64,400 after a retest from below. ② Trigger A 1H candle close below 64,180. Stop Above 64,850 (back inside the range). Targets T1: 63,600 T2: 62,800 T3: 62,000 ✦ Invalidation: A 15M/1H reclaim above 64,850 invalidates the short setup and shifts the outlook back to Scenario 2 (long toward 65,600). Scenario 2 – Alternative Range Long Toward the 65,600 Magnet Probability: 44% As long as 64,400 holds and the 15M/5M charts continue to turn higher, another test of the 65,600-65,900 resistance zone becomes likely. The 4H market structure continues to support this scenario. ① Entry Long at 64,500-64,650 after a confirmed reclaim, or on a pullback into 64,400. ② Trigger A 15M candle close above 64,800 with increasing volume. Stop Below 64,180 (beneath the 1H EMA cluster and the 15M range low). Targets T1: 65,200 T2: 65,600 ✦ T3: 65,900 Invalidation: A 1H candle close below 64,180 invalidates the long setup and activates Scenario 1 (short toward 63,600/62,000). Probabilities are subjective technical assessments and not guarantees. Trade the confirmation, not the opinion. This is not financial advice. Always apply your own risk management.