◈ XAUUSD: Bearish Pressure Still Controls the Structure GoldOANDA:XAUUSDKelly_Koou_Gold◈ XAUUSD: Bearish Pressure Still Controls the Structure Gold is facing renewed selling pressure as the market reacts to stronger USD demand and rising concerns around inflation expectations. From Kelly’s view, the chart also supports this bearish tone, with price still trading below the key sell zone and showing signs that another Elliott wave decline may continue. The key idea is simple: gold is not yet showing a clean bullish recovery, and the structure still favours downside continuation while price remains below resistance. ⟡ Market structure The chart shows gold has been moving in a repeated bearish rhythm, with several recovery attempts failing near resistance. After the latest rebound, price could not hold above the 4,060–4,080 area and quickly rotated lower again. The current price is around 4,036, while the nearest sell zone is sitting near 4,020–4,035. This area is important because price is trying to stabilise here, but the recovery is still weak. If sellers continue to defend this zone, gold may drop back towards the lower Fibonacci support. The main downside target remains the 3,940–3,955 area, where the chart marks the support zone, Fibonacci 1.618 extension, and potential end of wave 5. ➤ Key levels ◌ 4,020–4,035: current sell zone and short-term resistance ◌ 3,985–4,000: buy scalping wave 4 reaction area ◌ 3,940–3,955: support / Fibonacci 1.618 / wave 5 target ◌ 4,060–4,080: resistance area if price rebounds ◌ Above 4,080: area where the bearish setup starts to weaken ⌁ Elliott Wave view From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be forming a bearish 5-wave continuation after the previous corrective rebound failed. Wave 1 started the decline from the upper resistance area. Wave 2 created a short recovery but failed to change the structure. Wave 3 pushed price lower with stronger bearish pressure. Wave 4 may be developing around the 3,985–4,000 reaction area. If the sell zone continues to hold, wave 5 may extend towards 3,940–3,955. This is why Kelly would still treat the current market as bearish unless gold can reclaim the higher resistance zone with strength. ▸ Fundamental backdrop Gold is under pressure as energy-driven inflation concerns keep the market cautious about the Fed’s policy path. If traders continue pricing in a more hawkish Fed outlook, the US Dollar may stay supported and limit gold’s recovery. At the same time, rising US-Iran tension is also supporting USD demand as a safe-haven currency. This creates a difficult environment for gold in the short term, especially when the technical structure is already leaning bearish. ▸ Trading scenario Preferred scenario: wait for price to reject from the 4,020–4,035 sell zone before expecting bearish continuation. Sell zone: 4,020–4,035 if bearish confirmation appears Stop loss: above 4,080 or above the confirmed rejection high Take profit 1: 3,985–4,000 Take profit 2: 3,960 Take profit 3: 3,940–3,955 Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,080 and holds with strong acceptance, the bearish wave 5 setup weakens. In that case, price may move into a corrective recovery before the next structure becomes clear. ⌁ Kelly’s view For Kelly, gold is still trading under bearish pressure. The macro backdrop supports USD strength, while the technical chart shows price failing to reclaim key resistance. The cleaner plan is not to chase price at the low, but to wait for a reaction around the sell zone. If sellers defend that area, wave 5 may continue towards the Fibonacci support below. Gold remains vulnerable. As long as resistance holds, the downside structure still has priority. Share your view below.