CADJPY: Why I'm BullishCAD/JPYOANDA:CADJPYEdgeTradingJourneyAfter weeks of trading inside a well-defined descending channel, CADJPY has finally broken out, confirming a significant shift in market structure. Although price is currently testing a major daily supply zone, I believe the broader picture still favors the bulls. Technical Outlook The breakout above the descending channel was impulsive, showing strong buying pressure and a clear change in momentum. Since then, price has continued printing higher highs and higher lows, confirming a bullish market structure. However, chasing price at current levels doesn't offer an attractive risk-to-reward ratio. The daily supply zone overhead is likely to attract profit-taking, making a short-term pullback the most probable scenario before another leg higher. The area I'm watching closely is the Daily Fair Value Gap around 114.65, which aligns with previous imbalance and could provide an ideal reload zone for institutional buyers. Commitment of Traders (COT) The latest COT report continues to support the bullish narrative. Canadian Dollar Commercial participants have been increasing their long exposure while overall open interest has expanded. Although speculative positioning remains net short, recent flows suggest that institutional demand for the Canadian Dollar is gradually improving. Japanese Yen The Japanese Yen continues to show weakness. Large speculative positioning remains heavily biased against the currency, while open interest has declined, indicating a lack of fresh buying conviction. Retail Sentiment Retail positioning provides another important confirmation. Currently: 69% of retail traders are short 31% are long Retail traders continue attempting to fade the rally. Historically, this type of positioning is often interpreted as a contrarian signal, increasing the probability that the current trend continues higher. Seasonality Seasonality also aligns with the bullish outlook. Historically: The Canadian Dollar tends to strengthen during July. The Japanese Yen tends to underperform during the same period. With both currencies showing seasonal divergence, historical flows continue supporting upside potential for CADJPY. My Trading Plan I'm not interested in buying into resistance. Instead, I'll patiently wait for price to retrace into the Daily Fair Value Gap around 114.60–114.70. If buyers defend that imbalance and market structure remains intact, I'll look for confirmation on the lower timeframes before entering long. As long as the bullish structure remains valid, I believe new highs remain the higher probability outcome.