UBS Warns of Increasing Market FragilityUBS Group AGSIX_DLY:UBSGActivTradesUBS Warns of Increasing Market Fragility Despite Calm VIX as Earnings Season Begins [/b]Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades The apparent stability reflected by the VIX volatility index may be concealing an increase in risk in the U.S. equity market, according to a UBS report, which warns of elevated dispersion among individual stocks at a time when the corporate earnings season is beginning. The Swiss bank said that its proprietary Turbu-lens indicator has reached a level of 0.9, its highest since September 2025, a reading that points to a higher probability of volatility episodes even though the VIX remains at historically moderate levels. The bank explained that the volatility recorded by individual stocks is currently three times higher than that observed for the index as a whole, a divergence that, in its view, reflects an apparently stable market, although with significant differences in the performance of individual companies. The warning coincides with the start of the second-quarter earnings season in the United States, at a time when market consensus expects corporate earnings growth of around 24%. UBS believes that such elevated expectations leave little room for disappointment and increase the risk of sharp moves in stocks that fail to meet forecasts. The bank therefore recommends prioritizing hedging strategies on individual companies, particularly in the technology, energy and financial sectors, rather than relying on broad index hedges. UBS Group AG, Switzerland's largest bank and one of the world's leading wealth managers following the integration of Credit Suisse in 2023, operates in investment banking, asset management and private banking, with a presence in more than 50 countries. The divergence between the index's low volatility and the high dispersion among individual stocks reflects a market that is more vulnerable than traditional indicators suggest. In my view, such demanding earnings expectations leave little room for disappointment, which could translate into sharp price movements in companies that fail to meet forecasts. In this environment, selective hedging strategies may prove more effective than an approach based solely on index hedges. UBS Technical Analysis UBS shares, listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange, maintain a bullish long-term technical structure. After establishing support at CHF 32.12, the stock has developed a sequence of higher highs and higher lows since May, breaking through resistance levels at CHF 34.60, CHF 38.39 and CHF 41.42. After consolidating the move with support around CHF 39.54, the stock was trading during the early hours of Tuesday's session in the CHF 42.20-42.25 range, extending its bullish momentum. From a technical indicator perspective, the RSI stands at 69.03, close to the overbought threshold, reflecting the strength of the rally that began in May. Meanwhile, the MACD remains in positive territory and is showing a phase of stabilization following the latest upward leg. The moving averages continue to display a bullish and expanding configuration, a pattern that keeps the primary uptrend intact as long as the price holds above the support levels established over recent weeks. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.