FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW It wasn’t a good start to the week for gold as the precious metal fell by more than 3% yesterday as the US reimposed the naval blockade and Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Oil prices are surging again, and inflation worries are back on the menu. This has triggered another hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations. Moreover, Fed’s Waller said that another upside surprise in the monthly core inflation data would be enough for him to vote for a rate hike at the July meeting already. Therefore, the focus will be on the Core CPI M/M number today which is expected at 0.2%. If the data beats forecasts, the probabilities for a rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting will likely rise above 50% and the Fed will be forced to follow through to avoid a dovish surprise. This should trigger another selloff in gold. On the other hand, if the data comes in line or even below expectations, then we will likely see the odds for a July hike dropping and that will likely trigger a relief rally in the short-term. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold is trading near the monthly lows following the renewed US-Iran conflict and hawkish Fed expectations. The natural target should be the 3,885 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a pullback into the downward trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the major upward trendline next. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the recent bearish move. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to extend the pullback into the major downward trendline.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor resistance around the 4,050 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to extend the pullback into the trendline. Today, the fundamentals will drive the price action more than the technicals though. So, if we get an in line or soft Core CPI M/M, we will likely see a relief rally in the short-term. Conversely, a higher-than-expected figure should result in another selloff with the 3,885 level as target. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we have the US CPI report and Fed Chair Warsh testimony. Tomorrow, we have the US PPI report. On Thursday, we get the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims data. On Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. This article was written by flfeaa2662d774455a8d50fa77b791ed5f at investinglive.com.