MARKETS week ahead: July 19 – 25Crypto Total Market Cap, $CRYPTOCAP:TOTALXBTFXLast week in the news Investor attention in the U.S. market this week was focused on inflation developments and their potential impact on Federal Reserve policy expectations. At the same time, there are renewed tensions in the Middle East and increase in oil prices. The S&P 500 was trying to tick the old ATH, however, turned Friday to the downside and closed the week at 7.450. The U.S. yields were also reacting to inflation figures, with increasing demand for longer term bonds as a safe-haven, pushing yields lower towards 4,5%. The price of gold continues to be under pressure, but continues to test the key support at $4K. The crypto market managed to gain investors attention, with BTC testing the key resistance at $65K. As for U.S. macro news this week inflation was in focus. The latest data showed a stronger-than-expected decline in consumer prices, with inflation falling 0.4% m/m in June and easing to 3.5% on an annual basis. Both headline and core inflation came in below market forecasts, reinforcing expectations that price pressures continue to moderate and potentially providing additional support for a more accommodative Fed stance. Producer prices also surprised to the downside, declining 0.3% during the month compared with expectations for a 0.1% increase, further supporting the view that inflationary pressures are gradually cooling. At the same time, retail sales increased by 0.2% in June, slightly below forecasts of 0.5%, indicating that consumer demand remains resilient but is showing signs of moderation. Overall, the data strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve may have greater flexibility regarding future monetary policy decisions. At his Congressional testimony last week, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability, emphasizing that inflation remains the central focus of monetary policy. Throughout his testimony, he maintained a data-dependent stance and avoided providing explicit forward guidance on future interest rate decisions, reinforcing the view that upcoming economic releases will play a decisive role in shaping policy. The market consensus remains that the Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged in the near term, while investors continue to closely monitor inflation and labor market data for clues on the policy outlook later this year. Chinese smartphone manufacturers are increasingly turning toward agentic AI technology as a way to revive demand in a slowing smartphone market. Companies are focusing on AI-powered devices that can perform more complex tasks and provide personalized services, aiming to differentiate their products beyond traditional hardware upgrades. The shift reflects broader efforts by smartphone makers to create new growth opportunities as consumer demand remains weak and competition intensifies. AI integration is becoming a key strategy to drive future device sales and strengthen ecosystems around mobile technology. Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest continued adjusting its portfolio, reducing exposure to Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) while increasing its position in SpaceX shares. The fund sold additional AMD holdings as part of a broader portfolio rotation, while the purchases of SpaceX shares reflected continued confidence in long-term innovation and space technology themes. The moves highlight ARK’s ongoing strategy of shifting capital toward high-growth, disruptive technology companies despite short-term market volatility. CRYPTO MARKET The cryptocurrency market delivered a mixed performance during the week, with Bitcoin remaining broadly stable while Ethereum posted modest gains. Among the major cryptocurrencies, price movements were generally subdued, although several altcoins experienced more pronounced declines. Total crypto market capitalization remained flat on a weekly level, with only a modest outflow of 0,5% w/w. Daily trading volumes were also flat, moving around $83B on a daily basis. Total market capitalization since the beginning of this year currently stands in a negative territory of -26%, with a total outflow of -$769B. Bitcoin traded virtually unchanged over the week, ending at $64,081 with a market capitalization of $1.28 trillion. Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin, rising 1.71% w/w to $1,843, while Ripple extended its recent weakness, declining 2.23% w/w. Among the stronger performers within the major cryptocurrencies, Zcash led the gains with an 11.18% w/w increase, followed by OMG Network (+13.34% w/w), LINK (+5.82% w/w), Monero (+4.00% w/w), Litecoin (+2.87% w/w) and ONDO (+2.48% w/w). On the downside, Hyperliquid recorded the largest decline, falling 11.56% w/w, followed by IOTA (-9.94% w/w), THETA (-9.74% w/w), Filecoin (-5.41% w/w), Polkadot (-5.41% w/w), Algorand (-5.28% w/w) and Uniswap (-5.19% w/w). Outside the selected list, the strongest weekly performers were Lido DAO, which advanced 17.4% w/w, and Pump.fun, which gained 14.0% w/w. Regarding circulating supply, LINK recorded the largest increase, with the number of coins in circulation rising by 2.9% w/w. Uniswap followed with a 0.7% increase in circulating supply, while Filecoin expanded by 0.3%. Binance Coin recorded a decline in circulating supply, which fell 1.2% w/w. CRYPTO FUTURES MARKET The crypto futures market delivered a mixed performance this week. Bitcoin futures traded largely sideways after two consecutive weeks of gains, while Ether futures extended their recovery, posting another week of broad-based advances across the curve. The divergence suggests that investor interest shifted toward Ethereum, with market participants showing greater confidence in its near- and medium-term outlook. Bitcoin futures were broadly stable, with weekly changes ranging from -0.6% to +0.3%. Shorter-dated maturities recorded modest declines, as the July and August 2026 contracts fell 0.61% and 0.63%, respectively. However, contracts from October 2026 onward returned to positive territory, posting gains of around 0.3%, with the December 2027 contract settling at $69,275, up 0.30% on the week. The relatively flat performance indicates that the market paused after the recent recovery, with investors awaiting fresh catalysts before taking larger directional positions. Ether futures outperformed once again, recording gains between 1.8% and 4.0% across all listed maturities. The strongest advance was seen in the September 2026 contract, which climbed 3.98% to $1,855, while the July 2026 contract gained 1.82% to $1,849. Longer-dated maturities also posted consistent gains of around 2.8%, leaving the December 2027 contract at $2,004, up 2.77% from the previous week. The continued strength across the curve reflects sustained investor demand for Ethereum exposure. The futures curves for both Bitcoin and Ether remain in contango, with longer-dated maturities continuing to trade at premiums to near-term contracts. This upward-sloping term structure indicates that, despite short-term fluctuations, investors continue to expect higher cryptocurrency prices over the longer horizon.