Reading the Character of the Next Market CycleOil - US CrudeIG:USOILMehdi_Abbasi_EWPCrude Oil: Impulse or Diagonal? Reading the Character of the Next Market Cycle In my previous long-term analysis, the primary expectation was that crude oil was developing the final fifth wave of the largest degree as a classic Impulse. If that interpretation proves correct, the long-term bullish outlook remains valid and significantly higher price objectives could still become achievable over the coming years. However, as the market structure continues to evolve, another equally valid Elliott Wave scenario deserves serious consideration. Rather than unfolding as a traditional impulse, the final advance may develop as a Diagonal. At this stage, the structure could take the form of an Ending Diagonal, an Extended Diagonal, or—most likely—a Contracting Diagonal (wedge). If this scenario unfolds, the long-term bullish outlook remains intact. The difference lies not in the direction of the trend, but in its character. Instead of a fast, decisive advance, price may continue to climb through an overlapping, grinding, and increasingly exhausting structure—behavior that is typical of terminal diagonals. At the same time, the conservative scenario remains fully valid. Under this interpretation, the decline from the previous major high represents only Wave A of a larger corrective structure. The following rally retraced more than 90% of that decline and reached approximately 11,555.4, a behavior that remains consistent with several corrective formations. As a result, the current decline could be developing as an impulsive Wave C of a Classic Zigzag (A-B-C). Alternatively, it may become part of a larger Double Zigzag correction. Another possibility that should not be overlooked is the development of a Flat correction—either a Regular Flat or an Expanded Flat. In such a case, Wave C could itself unfold as an Expanding Ending Diagonal. Although less common, this structure is fully consistent with Elliott Wave guidelines and is often characterized by increasing volatility, broadening price swings, and persistent overlap between waves. At this stage, no single scenario has been confirmed. The evolution of price structure—and respect for key invalidation levels—will ultimately determine which path the market chooses. Beyond Price: Studying the Character of Waves Over the years, my research has gradually moved beyond simply counting waves or projecting price targets. One question continues to capture my attention: Can market structure reveal not only where price may go, but also the character of the environment in which future market cycles will unfold? This is why I spend as much time studying the character of waves as I do their labels. Many traders assume that every impulse must resemble the textbook ideal. My observations suggest otherwise. Every market has its own personality. Some trends unfold with exceptional strength and clarity, while others advance through prolonged overlap, hesitation, and exhaustion. Perhaps these differences are not random. Financial markets do not exist in isolation. They constantly interact with one another. Sometimes they move together through positive correlation. Sometimes they move in opposite directions. At other times, these relationships strengthen, weaken, or even reverse as global economic conditions evolve. Understanding these relationships is far more complex than identifying a wave count, and I believe there is still much to discover. In the case of crude oil, for example, a prolonged period of geopolitical tension, recurring disruptions to strategic energy routes, political conflicts, or a sustained war of attrition could create market conditions that are more consistent with the personality of an Ending Diagonal than with a clean, explosive impulse. Conversely, an abrupt and severe supply shock could produce the kind of powerful momentum more commonly associated with a classic Impulse. This is not an attempt to predict geopolitical events. Rather, it is an attempt to understand whether market structure may reflect changes in collective psychology before those changes become fully visible through headlines and economic data. This remains an ongoing personal research project rather than a definitive conclusion. My objective is not simply to forecast price, but to better understand the relationship between wave structure, crowd psychology, intermarket behavior, and the broader forces shaping future market cycles. Perhaps markets do more than anticipate price. Perhaps they also whisper something about the future itself. Patterns whisper. I listen. — Mr. Nobody CFDs on Brent Crude Oil Jun 6 Crude Oil: The Long-Term Elliott Wave Projection CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI) 7 days ago US Oil (WTI) – 4H Elliott Wave Update