Key HighlightsU.S. consumer inflation cooled in June, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting headline CPI fell 0.4% month-on-month—the biggest monthly drop since April 2020—while core CPI (ex-food and energy) was flat after a 0.2% rise in May, versus economists’ expectations for a 0.1% decline and 0.3% core gain.UK’s FTSE indexes edged lower on Tuesday as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and losses in financial and travel stocks outweighed energy gains after BP said it benefited from earlier oil-price strength, with the blue-chip FTSE 100 down 0.3% at 10,461.14 and the midcap FTSE 250 slipping 0.7%.Japan’s Nikkei share average rallied on Tuesday, supported by bargain-buying and a boost from the tech-heavy South Korean market, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.74% at 67,743.50 after an earlier slide of as much as 1.45%, and the broader Topix gaining 0.79% to 4,038.98.Oil prices rose Tuesday to four-week highs after the U.S. reimposed a naval blockade of Iran and renewed U.S.-Iran attacks raised concerns over flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent up $3.25 (3.89%) at $86.52, it’s highest since June 12 and U.S. WTI up $1.86 (2.38%) at $80.00, it’s highest since June 16 as of 08:13 ET.Gold recovered on Tuesday after a two-week low, with bargain hunting following a sharp selloff as investors awaited Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony, while Middle East tensions and hawkish Fed comments kept rate-hike expectations in focus; at 08:55 ET XAU/USD was up 1.69% at $4,070.61/oz, Gold Futures rose 1.81% to $4,071.80.The U.S. dollar eased slightly on Tuesday but remained near 13-month highs as investors held back ahead of key U.S. inflation data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony. The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% to about 101.2 as traders avoided heavy positioning amid a fast-moving Middle East crisis that has reshaped global inflation expectations.JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) reported Q2 EPS of $7.70 and revenue of $57.35 billion, beating estimates of $5.55 and $50.61 billion and up 28% from $44.91 billion a year earlier, yet its shares fell in premarket trading. Wells Fargo posted Q2 EPS of $2.00 on $22.62 billion in revenue, topping forecasts of $1.72 and $21.87 billion, and its shares rose about 1.5% premarket.Citigroup reported a 45% jump in Q2 profit and its highest quarterly revenue in a decade on Tuesday, driven by strong trading income amid volatile markets and robust investment banking fees as the U.S.-Iran war rattled markets and prompted portfolio rebalancing.IBM stock plunged in premarket trading Tuesday after preliminary Q2 results missed estimates—revenue of $17.2 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.93—with CEO Arvind Krishna blaming the shortfall on a weaker-than-expected infrastructure business.U.S. stocks opened mixed on Tuesday as upbeat inflation data battled escalating Middle East tensions and a pullback in IBM shares, with investors also digesting quarterly results from major U.S. banks.At 09:32 ET, the S&P 500 rose 0.2% to 7,527.48, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5% to 26,002.32, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% to 52,405.41.US Economic Data and Earnings CalendarInvestors will focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony Tuesday before the House Financial Services Committee and Wednesday before the Senate Banking Committee; his early policy and governance moves are seen as charting an independent course, with task-force appointments stressing expertise, and he affirmed the Fed will meet its inflation target with no mention of rate cuts.Wednesday’s producer price index will offer a fuller inflation picture including inputs like healthcare services that feed into the Fed’s preferred core PCE while retail sales for June are due Thursday and housing starts and building permits follow Friday.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) kicks off a highly anticipated Q2 chip earnings season on Thursday. TSMC is forecast to earn $3.80 per U.S. share on $39.94 billion in sales up 46% and 26% year-on-year, respectively with Q3 estimates showing earnings rising 48% and sales up 35%. The foundry, which makes chips for AMD, Apple, Broadcom and Nvidia, operates one advanced U.S. fabrication in Arizona with three more planned, and its stock is up 45% year-to-date.General Electric (GE) reports Q2 on Thursday before the open, with analysts forecasting EPS up 12.5% and sales up 16.5% despite tough comparisons. A slowdown to the jet-engine leader’s weakest growth in several quarters as it grapples with severe supply bottlenecks, engine shortages, and delivery backlogs; GE stock is up 17% year-to-date.S&P 500 earnings are forecast to rise 23.7% year-on-year in Q2, per LSEG IBES.Economic Calendar: (Week of July 14 - 17)Tuesday, July 14 —Fed Chair Warsh testifies today, with FOMC officials Barr, Goolsbee and Bowman also delivering remarks.Wednesday, July 15 —Producer Price Index (PPI), EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Empire State Manufacturing, MBA Mortgage Applications Index.Thursday, July 16 —Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims, NAHB Housing Market Index, Pending Home Sales, Philadelphia Fed Index.Friday, July 17 —Building Permits, Capacity Utilization, Export Prices, Housing Starts, Import Prices, Industrial Production, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary).https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar, a more detailed calendarKey Earnings Calendar: (Week of July 15 - 17)Wednesday, July 15 —ASML, Bank of New York Mellon (BNY), BlackRock (BLK), Cintas (CTAS), Elevance Health (ELV), J.B. Hunt (JBHT), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC (PNC), Progressive (PGR), United Airlines (UAL).Thursday, July 16 —Abbott (ABT), Alcoa (AA), Citizens Financial (CFG), GE Aerospace (GE), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Netflix (NFLX), Prologis (PLD), State Street (STT), TSMC (TSM), UnitedHealth (UNH), U.S. Bancorp (USB).Friday, July 17 —Autoliv (ALV), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Regions Financial (RF), Travelers (TRV), Truist Financial (TFC).https://www.investing.com/earnings-calendar, a more detailed calendarASML (ASML) Holding is set to report quarterly results before Wednesday’s open and is poised for a significant post-results move after its shares surged nearly 70% year-to-date and about 125% over the past 12 months amid an AI-driven rally that has spurred chipmakers to ramp up manufacturing capacity and boost orders for the semiconductor-equipment maker.TSMC (TSM) reports Q2 earnings Thursday; analysts polled by FactSet expect EPS of $3.80 and sales of $39.94 billion—up 46% and 26% year-on-year, respectively, with Q3 forecasts showing EPS up 48% and revenue up 35%.Wedbush Securities analyst Matt Bryson reiterated his buy on TSMC (TSM) after its sales report, saying Q2 sales show "demand for advanced node foundry production remains extremely healthy" driven by robust AI needs and strong results for AI-focused silicon vendors, and noting TSMC has been raising prices 5%–10% on 3nm–7nm process nodes.Wall Street expects Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) to deliver another solid quarter despite ongoing patent pressures, with consensus calling for Q2 EPS of about $2.85 and revenue of $25.18 billion—up roughly 3% and 6% year-on-year, respectively.Analysts forecast Abbott (ABT) will report Q2 EPS of $1.28—up 1.6% year-on-year—on revenue of $12.48 billion, a 12% increase from the prior-year quarter.Netflix (NFLX) will report Q2 results after the close on Thursday, with investors eyeing whether ad revenue growth and new content can sustain momentum. Analysts expect EPS of $0.79 on revenue of about $12.58 billion, in line with the company’s prior Q2 revenue projection ($12.57 billion, +13.5% y/y) and its full-year revenue outlook of $50.7–$51.7 billion.Analysts expect GE Aerospace (GE) to report Q2 EPS of $1.86—up 12.1% year-on-year—on revenue of $11.86 billion, a 16.8% increase from the year-ago quarter.Weekly US Indices Probability MapThe U.S. weekly market probability map for July 13 - 17, 2026 suggests “Week opens and closes bullish; midweek sees mixed-to-bearish action”.July historically strong: since 2007 DJIA +2.32% avg in 85% of years; Nasdaq +3.11% avg in 75%; S&P 500 +2.41% avg in 75%.Sentiment readings are derived from a seasonality-based scoring system. 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He has a CMT charter, an AAPTA membership, and a CMT Canada membership. He has worked in various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.He is regarded as an excellent mentor and has trained more than 2000+ users in North America, Gulf countries & Asia on financial markets & products, active and passive trading, and technical analysis strategies. He emanated technical analysis daily and weekly reports for BridgeNews Chicago bureau and updated technical analysis reports on Bloomberg and Reuters while working with ABN Amro bank treasury & capital markets. Has moderated and produced technical analysis reports for Thomson Reuters (Refinitiv) users’ chat rooms and trained users on technical analysis techniques and models. Conducted TA & Global Markets outlook workshop with central banks, sovereign funds, global & regional banks & family offices.