EUR/USD Holding Intact Despite Soft Inflation and Oil SpikeEUR/USDTASTYFX:EURUSDtastyfxEUR/USD probed the top of its monthlong range on Wednesday, closing at a three-week high just below 1.1470, before easing back under 1.1450 through Thursday's U.S. session. The pair has largely absorbed this week's softer inflation prints and shrugged off the initial lift they provided, leaving it hemmed inside the roughly 1.1350 to 1.1450 band that has contained it for about a month. Rather than pressing the upside, EUR/USD has drifted back toward the middle of the range as the Dollar reasserts a firm tone. The fundamental backdrop has quietly shifted beneath the price action. This week's CPI and PPI both landed below expectations, softening the near-term inflation picture, but a fresh climb in oil has since begun to overshadow those misses. Heightened geopolitical tension, with U.S. strikes against Iran intensifying and Brent pushing above $85, has revived inflation concerns and firmed the case for further tightening, while also lending the Dollar a safe-haven bid. The same oil shock cuts the other way for the Euro, weighing more heavily on Eurozone growth prospects given the region's reliance on imported energy. With the Fed and ECB otherwise viewed in broadly similar positions, that asymmetry in how the two economies absorb the oil move has been enough to keep the Dollar supported and the Euro capped. In the above chart, EUR/USD rates continue to respect a monthlong consolidation, with ~1.1450 reasserting itself as former support turned resistance. Wednesday's close just under 1.1470 marked a brief peek above that hurdle, but the failure to hold there and the subsequent slip back below 1.1450 leaves the range unbroken and the breakout unconfirmed. Within the holding pattern, short-term traders can watch the 20-day EMA (exponential moving average), sitting right at today's low, to gauge whether it holds as near-term support. A decisive push through 1.1470 would reopen the path toward 1.16, while a move below 1.1350 would validate what is shaping up as a bear flag and shift focus to the downside. With no major data due between now and next week's ECB meeting, geopolitical developments may prove the most likely catalyst to break the pair out of its range.