Wheat Futures +13.10% in 15 days .....Chicago SRW Wheat FuturesCBOT_DL:ZW1!AlexandreScaianskiWheat Futures COT positioning This is a significant shift from the prior analysis. Managed Money is now buying (+4,617 longs, -2,512 shorts) rather than the aggressive selling seen last time. Large Specs also trimmed shorts (-3,579) while adding modest longs (+1,695). Producer/Merchant longs fell slightly (-2,100) while their shorts rose (+4,233) — commercials are now adding hedges at these levels, the mirror image of what they were doing below 607. COT Index has pulled back from 63.1% to 57.4% (6mo) and 46.7% (36mo), still mid-range — not at an extreme that would force a large short-covering squeeze but also not crowded long enough to fear a collapse. The spec community is increasingly positioned in the direction of the move, which is normal for a trend but reduces the potential for further short-covering fuel above current levels. USDA Crop Progress US total wheat production is forecast to fall to 41.81 million tons — the lowest since 1970 — down from 54.01 million tons last year, driven by a reduction in sown area (15.07M ha to 12.98M ha) and a decline in yield (35.8 c/ha to 32.2 c/ha). Winter wheat production is now estimated below the previous figure at 990 million bushels; ending stocks for 2026-27 are projected at 722 million bushels — a tight balance sheet. HRW crop condition ratings remain among the lowest in over 30 years. Spring wheat rated 58% G/E as of July 12 (+1pt week-on-week), headed 72% vs 54% prior week. Spring wheat improving slightly but winter wheat (the price-setting crop) remains structurally compromised — net bullish supply backdrop for the medium term. Trade location & invalidation levels Short/fade: Best location is 667-688 (Premium zone into Weak High), looking for the liquidity sweep of 688.2 to fail and reverse. Invalidation: daily close above 688.2 with momentum (would confirm extension toward 720-777). Tight stop given how fast these Iran-war reversal moves can be. Long/continuation: Only on a pullback to 638.2 (weekly POC) with a daily close confirming hold, targeting re-test of 667-688. Invalidation: close below 622 (prior BOS level, would compromise the bullish SMC structure). The 4H FOMO signal argues against chasing at 664 — wait for the pullback. Do not chase at current levels — the KMCM 4H Velocity/Volume + FOMO readings (Velocity 17, Volume 94) indicate the immediate move is overextended on a 4-hour basis. The daily reading is Neutral/Balanced (Velocity 19, Volume 110), which means the trend is intact on daily but the entry timing is poor right now. Probability ranking: Bearish pullback / FOMO unwind toward 638.2-616 (50%): KMCM 4H FOMO/Overheated + short-term WEAT outflows + producer commercial hedging added at these levels + price deep inside Premium zone + real yields at 2.356% = elevated mean-reversion risk. The setup for a pullback is technically well-defined even if the fundamental trend remains bullish. Range/consolidation 640-670 pending PPI and Iran clarity (30%): Market awaits the PPI print and any Iran ceasefire/escalation headline before committing to the next directional move; consistent with the daily KMCM Neutral/Balanced regime. Bullish extension through 688 → 720+ (20%): Requires a simultaneous soft PPI + fresh Iran escalation catalyst. Possible given the war-premium dynamic is very headline-sensitive, but the technical risk/reward at 664 chasing into 688 is poor given the FOMO signal and Weak High designation.