Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnADVERTISEMENTMichael WilliamsSat, July 18, 2026 at 11:45 PM GMT+2 4 min readQuick ReadPokémon cards claimed a 3,261% return versus the S&P 500's 421%, but SPY has actually delivered 510% over the same window with real dividends and liquidity.Collectibles indexes track only graded, top-condition headline cards, which is very different from the random $10 pack in your closet that has no shot at those returns.Hanson calls it a math crime: comparing a survivor-biased collectibles average to a broad index while ignoring that Amazon, NVIDIA, and Tesla individually crush those card returns.Don't wait: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just revealed his top 10 AI stocks. See the full list FREE now.A clip making the rounds on social media pitched collectibles as a smarter bet than the stock market. The numbers looked compelling on their face. On The Money Guy Show segment "Financial Advisors React to Jaw Dropping Money Clips," co-host Bo Hanson took the numbers apart and explained why the comparison falls apart under scrutiny.Foryou13 from Getty Images Pro and utah778 from Getty ImagesThe Viral ClaimThe clip asserted that Pokémon cards have generated a 20-year average return of 21.8% per year, totaling 3,261%, versus the S&P 500's 421% gain (8.79% annually). The presenter framed it as "2.5 times better than the S&P 500."Set alongside the actual index, the equity benchmark's long-run record is still substantial. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) has climbed 509.56% over the roughly two-decade window from July 17, 2006 through July 14, 2026, with the ETF last printing $751.97. The 10-year figure alone is 248.34%. Real numbers, real liquidity, real dividends.Bo Hanson's "Math Crime"Hanson called the comparison a "math crime." His core objection: the clip is stacking an aggregated collectibles number against a diversified equity index. As he put it, "He is taking... the average across all American football cards... and comparing that to a basket of goods in the S&P 500."Don't wait: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just revealed his top 10 AI stocks. See the full list FREE now.Flip the exercise around and pit the collectibles average against individual equity winners, and the story changes. Hanson noted that names like Amazon, NVIDIA, and Tesla would "smoke the numbers here" over the same period. The collectibles pitch quietly compares a survivor-biased average of top cards against a broad index of 500 companies. Apples versus fruit salad.The Pack ProblemThe second layer of the flaw is the assumption that any given buyer actually captures the aggregate return. Hanson's point was direct: buying a $10 pack of Pokémon cards and holding it for 20 years does not mean you "got so lucky that one of the cards in your pack was so valuable that you recognize a 3,000% rate of return." Aggregate collectibles indexes are constructed from graded, high-condition, headline-grabbing cards. The pack in your closet is almost certainly not in that dataset.Terms and Privacy PolicyEU DSA contactPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore Info