Bitcoin Rebounds off Long Term Support, can the Rally continue?Bitcoin vs US DollarPEPPERSTONE:BTCUSDPepperstoneBitcoin has risen 1.16% this week, keeping the world’s biggest cryptocurrency on course to register its third weekly gain in a row, something it hasn’t achieved since April. This price action could be an on-going response to its test of long-term technical support at 57,866 (see main chart) in early July, from which dip buyers reappeared taking the price up 12.5% from its low at 57699 (July 1st) to the current level around 64,900 at the time of writing (0645 BST). From a macro perspective this week, Bitcoin prices may have found support from a recovery in general risk sentiment as cooler than expected US inflation prints on Tuesday and Wednesday, have seen market concerns regarding a Federal Reserve rate hike at their next meeting on July 29th reduce significantly, despite Fed Chair Kevin Warsh commenting in his testimony to Congress on Tuesday that one month of lower US inflation prints is not enough to confirm the Fed’s job to cap rising prices is done. Looking forward, traders may be focusing on the direction geopolitical risks in the Middle East take moving into early next week. Assessing these developments against the current technical backdrop, which is outlined below, to determine whether the current Bitcoin rally has further to run. Technical Update: Back to Important Long Term Technical Support: Bitcoin has fallen more than 54% from the October 2025 all‑time high at 126,304 into the June 2026 low of 57,699, leaving a negative momentum backdrop and pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Traders tend to view this as a downtrend in price, with risks for further extension if sellers remain evident. However, as the weekly chart below highlights, the decline has recently tested what may be an important longer‑term support area. This potential support sits at 57,866, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from September 2023 to October 2025. In technical analysis, the 61.8% level is often viewed as the most important Fibonacci retracement, because if prices close below the identified retracement level, it may lead to an extended period of price weakness, possibly moving all the way down to where the price strength began. In the case of Bitcoin, it’s perhaps not surprising that a bounce has materialised after 57,866 was tested. Looking forward, traders could now be trying to establish where key support and resistance levels sit to gauge whether the Bitcoin rally could extend, or if the downtrend may resume. Potential Support Focus: We have suggested that the 61.8% retracement level at 57,866 could be a key long‑term support, however moving to the daily chart (see below) shows closer support levels that may need to give way on a closing basis if prices are to eventually retest 57,866 again. While uncertainty amongst traders regarding the Iran conflict on Monday did bring renewed selling pressure for Bitcoin this week, it was the rising Bollinger mid‑average, currently at 62,497, that held and helped to spark the latest phase of price strength. This may mean that closes below 62,497 could open potential tests of the next support at 61,254, which is the July 6th low and rally point. If that level were also broken, risks could shift again toward the 57,866 retracement level. Ultimately, it may prove to be closes below 57,866 that lead to further price declines. Potential Resistance Focus: While short term support at 62,497 remains intact, Bitcoin could keep trying to extend its current recovery. However, the latest price strength has been capped by resistance at 65,558, which is the June 22nd high. If Bitcoin is going to build fresh upside momentum, traders could be watching this level, as breaks above it may be viewed as a sign the market may be attempting to move higher again. Breaks above 65,558, as the daily chart above shows, could see focus shift to 67,425, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from May 5th to July 1st. If Bitcoin closes above 67,425, it may then have room to move toward 70,259, the 50% retracement, and possibly even 73,236, the higher 61.8% Fibonacci level. 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