FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW In the past couple of days, we got surprisingly soft US CPI and PPI data that should translate into a 0.2% monthly increase in the Core PCE. This led to a dovish repricing in interest rate expectations, with Fed rate hike probabilities for July falling to just 10%. Gold spiked to the upside following the soft US CPI report but failed to sustain the gains, and the soft PPI didn’t help either. Overall, the risk/reward has flipped to the upside now and the US-Iran crisis in the background is what is likely holding back the precious metal.Therefore, in the short-term, US-Iran headlines should be more important. De-escalatory news should support gold and lead to a rally into new highs. Conversely, further escalation will likely weigh on the market and push prices into new lows. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold is still trading near the monthly lows despite the soft US CPI and PPI reports. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into the 3,885 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to open the door for a move into the next trendline around the 4,500 level. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the recent bearish move. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to extend the pullback into the major downward trendline.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor support zone around the 4,015 level. We can expect the buyers to step in around the support with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into the major downward trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bearish bets into the 3,885 level next. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we get the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims data. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.