Core Bearish PressuresBitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDMilo-BlakeCore Bearish Pressures 💌1. Substantial short-term profits have triggered orderly profit-taking and selling pressure from large holders. Following a rebound from the 59,100 low to 65,501—a gain exceeding 10%—short-term positions with unrealized profits are being cashed out en masse. On-chain data shows "whale" deposit ratios hitting extremes not seen since 2015; over 67% of BTC inflows to exchanges originated from the top ten whale addresses, signaling a staged distribution of holdings by large investors at high levels and a severe lack of sustained buying momentum. ETF inflows have been sporadic and minimal, with no signs of sustained, large-scale accumulation; institutions are primarily taking profits and reducing positions. Without fresh long-term capital to drive the price higher, any spike is highly susceptible to a pullback on low volume. 🔆2. The Federal Reserve has not fundamentally shifted to a tightening cycle, yet long-term downward pressure persists. Fed Governor Cook has publicly stated that rate hikes could resume if inflation rebounds and that a high-interest-rate environment will be maintained for the long term. Real yields on US Treasuries remain at three-year highs, making the cost of holding Bitcoin—a non-yielding asset—relatively high. Consequently, bulls are wary of blindly chasing highs, as significant "underwater" positions (held by investors currently at a loss) await opportunities to exit at every resistance level above. 🔻3. A bearish divergence has formed on technical charts, with multiple layers of resistance stacked overhead. While the hourly price chart has hit new highs, the RSI and MACD indicators have failed to follow suit—a classic signal of a pullback due to bearish divergence. The 65,300–65,500 range marks the peak of the current rebound and holds a large accumulation of trapped short-term positions. Furthermore, the 66,000–66,900 zone represents a high-volume area from the start of the previous decline; breaking through this resistance band in one go would require massive capital inflow. On the daily chart, the price remains below the 50-day moving average, meaning the bearish pressure from long-term moving averages has not been lifted. The rebound is best characterized as a corrective move within a downtrend rather than a reversal from bear to bull market.