Brent tops $90 as US, Iran attacks intensify across Middle East - where we're at

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Monday's move takes Brent to its highest level since June 11 and builds on last week's 15.9% gain, the biggest weekly rise since April, as the conflict between the US and Iran shows no sign of cooling. WTI's advance to its best level since June 12, following a 15.5% weekly gain that was the largest since early March, confirms the rally is broad-based rather than confined to one benchmark. The driver remains the same: a ninth consecutive night of US strikes on Iran, further Iranian attacks reported by Kuwait and Bahrain, and a mutual blockade dynamic around the Strait of Hormuz that has already cut vessel transits sharply. With a vessel reported on fire northwest of Oman's Kumzar and inventories described by one analyst as the tightest in five years, the market looks to be underpricing the risk to actual export volumes from the region rather than overpricing it, suggesting further upside risk if the dual blockades persist or intensify.---Brent's break above $90 shows oil markets are finally catching up to how serious this conflict has become.Summary:Brent crude futures rose about 3% to $90.79 on Monday, the highest level since June 11, extending a 15.9% weekly gain last week that was the biggest since AprilWTI crude rose more than 2.5% to its highest since June 12, after a 15.5% weekly gain last week, the largest since early MarchThe US conducted a ninth straight night of attacks against Iran over the weekend, while allies Kuwait and Bahrain reported further Iranian strikesBoth the US and Iran have targeted shipping traffic in recent days, with the US enforcing a naval blockade on Iranian ports and Iran targeting vessels it says violate its rules for navigating the Strait of HormuzA vessel was reported on fire northwest of Oman's Kumzar early Monday, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agencyAn analyst said the coming days and weeks will clarify the sustainable level of oil exports from the region under the renewed dual blockades, warning markets remain too complacent about the potential hit to inventories, which are at their tightest in five yearsJust four vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, down from eight the previous day, with at least three oil products tankers and one Very Large Crude Carrier entering since Friday to load oil, according to LSEG dataOil prices jumped on Monday, with Brent crude surpassing $90 a barrel for the first time since June 11, as the United States and Iran expanded their attacks across the Middle East in a conflict that is increasingly curbing energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent futures climbed roughly 3% to $90.79, extending a 15.9% weekly gain last week that was the biggest since April. US West Texas Intermediate crude rose more than 2.5% to its highest since June 12, building on a 15.5% weekly advance that was the largest since early March.The rally tracks a Middle East conflict that escalated further over the weekend. The US carried out a ninth consecutive night of attacks against Iran, while allies Kuwait and Bahrain reported additional Iranian strikes on their territory. In recent days, both sides have increasingly turned their fire toward shipping traffic itself, with the US saying it is enforcing a naval blockade on Iranian ports and Iran saying it is targeting vessels that violate its rules for navigating the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that typically carries about a fifth of global oil trade.The strain on shipping is already visible. A vessel was reported on fire northwest of Oman's Kumzar early Monday, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency. Separately, LSEG data showed just four vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, down from eight the day before, though at least three oil products tankers and one Very Large Crude Carrier have entered the strait since Friday to load cargo.One analyst said the coming days and weeks would provide a clearer picture of the sustainable level of oil exports from the region under the renewed dual blockades, adding that markets still appear too complacent about the potential fallout for inventories. Unlike at the start of the war, the analyst noted, global inventories are currently at their tightest level in five years, leaving less of a buffer to absorb any sustained disruption to flows through the strait. With both sides showing no sign of stepping back, traders are increasingly treating the risk of a prolonged supply disruption as a live scenario rather than a tail risk.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.