USA Rare Earth (USAR) LONG — 12H ALMA Re-entry (WR 75%)USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class ABATS:USARGoldfinch_song█ SETUP USAR · 12H · long only. (Context: USA Rare Earth — Round Top TX mine-to-magnet · NdFeB magnets · US critical-minerals chain.) ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 1/1, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry. Strategy Tester (USAR 12H): Win rate 75% · profit factor 2.4 · max drawdown 22% Avg winning trade +33.8% · avg losing trade −8.8% Typical hold ~15×12H bars on winners — US small-cap mean-reversion grid on the rare-earth template ═ █ WHY NOW Fresh 12H ALMA re-entry on the 20 Jul 13:30 UTC bar ~$15.64 — first lot on the template after the prior cycle stopped on 16 Jul ~$17.31 (that ladder had opened 09 Jul ~$18.43). Same Averaging strategy, deeper discount into the mid-Jul wash — bar-close re-arm, not a discretionary “buy the rare-earth dip” call and not a chase into the spring highs. Hard stop −10% from fill ~$14.08. Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop. Scale-in remains 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, if lower bars qualify. ═ █ MACRO Sector: USAR = Western rare-earth / critical minerals — Round Top (TX) → Wheat Ridge hydromet demo → magnet capacity buildout. Policy and supply-chain localization narratives vs dilution, legal, and pre-revenue execution risk. Tape (09–20 Jul): the name kept sliding after the early-July regulatory / overhang flush — prior 12H long stopped mid-Jul ~$17.3, then price tagged the mid-teens into this re-entry. Wheat Ridge first separated oxides still framed for Q3 2026 on company timeline; Round Top PFS still a later 2026 checkpoint. Execution is 12H ALMA Averaging on the re-arm bar, not an oxide-catalyst or Congress-headline forecast. ═ █ OUTLOOK Positive factors - Tester skew: 75% WR · PF 2.4 · avg win +33.8% vs avg loss −8.8% — fat right tail vs bounded ALMA stop path - Fresh re-entry after a scripted stop — template cut ~$17.3, then re-armed ~$15.6; process continuity, not revenge sizing - EMA — stretch below on the execution ladder: 1H Cur S:22 vs Avg S:12.6 · 4H Cur S:37 vs Avg S:10.4 · 1D Cur S:19 vs Avg S:8.0 · 3D Cur S:7 vs Avg S:5.4 — time-below overheated with deep Dev (~+5% to +33%) — classic mean-reversion fuel for an Averaging long - ALMA — slow clocks OVERHEAT-S: 1D S:6 vs SAvg:3.7 · 3D S:7 vs SAvg:3.2 · 1W S:5 vs SAvg:2.6 — stretched below the band on the structure clocks - SMC — 4H / 3D: FVG Enter Bull tagged near ~$15.6–15.7 into the wash — demand inefficiency sits on the fill zone - Deeper post-June / mid-Jul discount vs the 09 Jul first attempt (~$18.4 → ~$15.6) — more room under the prior add cluster if the template is built for averaging Negative factors - EMA — weekly still young below: 1W Cur S:3 vs Avg S:9.1 — slow-TF below-session not mature yet; weekly can extend before a full HTF reclaim - ALMA — fast clocks still young SHORT: 1H S:3 vs SAvg:4.1 · 4H S:2 vs SAvg:4.0 — LTF below-band not stretched; bounce can fail and print lower adds or the −10% path first - PA / SMC supply: Bearish FVG + HTF Bearish FVG formed on the board · 4H also printed FVG Enter/Raid Bear around the same ~$15.6–16.2 pocket — mixed inefficiency at the fill - TL: Support Break (2 bars) mid-Jul — structure break from the stop week still live - Regulatory / legal overhang from the June–early-July window (policy probe narrative, China-list symbolism, float/overhang tape) can re-gap a small-cap open through the hard stop - Pre-revenue buildout — Wheat Ridge oxides and Round Top PFS are milestones, not proof the bounce sticks - First lot only (1 of 4) — no averaged cushion yet if 12H extends lower before adds qualify Takeaway: the 12H ALMA strategy, deep EMA/ALMA below-stretch, and bull FVG at ~$15.6 support a disciplined re-entry after the mid-Jul stop, but young weekly/LTF sessions plus mixed bear FVG and headline gap risk frame a repair grind — not a clean trend reclaim; nominal risk stays on the −10% hard stop / Pine exit path. Base case: follow 12H ALMA Averaging · hold/add on qualifying bars while 4H bull FVG / mid-teens pocket cushions · mean-revert toward the prior stop zone if rare-earth tape stabilizes without a fresh policy gap. Bear case: lose the ~$15.6 bull FVG shelf · LTF young SHORT extends · another overhang headline gaps through −10% toward ~$14.1 from this fill · template posts the stop again and waits for the next bar-close arm. Chart: USAR 12H — ALMA Averaging Strategy. Educational idea. Live position — past backtest ≠ future results. NFA.