4150 Rejection Opens Lower Levels | XAUUSD 11/11GoldOANDA:XAUUSDAdrian_NovaTrader🌐 MARKET CONTEXT XAUUSD is showing a clear bearish shift after failing to sustain its advance above the 4145–4150 resistance zone. The previous bullish expansion lost momentum near BSL, followed by strong bearish displacement that broke the short-term market structure. The decline pushed price through several intraday support levels and established a bearish MSS, eventually reaching the 4012 area, where SSL liquidity became the next major point of interest. At the latest chart snapshot, price is trading around 4037 after reacting from the 4012 region. This recovery is important, but it has not yet confirmed a bullish structural reversal. My interpretation is that the current upward movement could be a corrective retracement within the newly established bearish structure. The main question for today's session is whether price can recover into the overhead FVG and POI before bearish momentum resumes. 📍 KEY LEVELS • Major Resistance: 4133–4145 • Upper Supply POI: 4085–4097 • Bearish FVG: 4060–4073 • Intermediate Reaction Level: 4045 • Major SSL: 4012 • Lower Support: 3980–3960 • Major Demand / OB: 3920–3933 The 4085–4097 region is the primary decision zone for the bearish scenario. It represents the more important overhead POI where price may encounter renewed bearish pressure. The 4060–4073 FVG is an intermediate reaction area. Price could react here before reaching the main POI, but a reaction from this zone alone would require additional confirmation before establishing a directional position. 🔴 PRIMARY SCENARIO – BEARISH CONTINUATION My primary expectation for today's session is a corrective recovery followed by another bearish leg. The recent displacement from the 4145 region has changed the short-term H1 structure. Although price has reacted from 4012, the recovery remains below the important 4085–4097 supply region. I will monitor the following sequence: 1. Price continues recovering from the 4012 liquidity area. 2. The first important reaction area is 4060–4073, where the bearish FVG remains relevant. 3. If bullish momentum continues, price may extend toward the 4085–4097 POI. 4. At the main POI, I will look for bearish rejection, lower-timeframe MSS or CHoCH, and a clear bearish displacement. 5. If confirmation develops, the next downside objectives become 4065, 4045 and 4012. Potential Trading Plan: Entry Zone: 4088–4093 Stop Loss: 4105 Take Profit: • TP1: 4065 • TP2: 4045 • TP3: 4012 • Extended Objective: 3980 The entry zone is positioned inside the upper POI rather than at the first FVG reaction. This provides a more selective approach and avoids treating every retracement as a valid setup. Confirmation Requirements: • Price must reach the designated entry zone. • Look for a bearish rejection on M15 or M5. • A bearish MSS or CHoCH should develop after the reaction. • Prefer a clear displacement candle rather than entering during sideways consolidation. Trade Management: After TP1, reassess the remaining position based on market structure. If bearish momentum remains strong and price continues producing lower highs and lower lows, the remaining objectives can stay active toward TP2 and TP3. Do not force an entry if price declines without revisiting the planned zone. 🟢 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO – BULLISH RECOVERY The bearish outlook would weaken if the market regains control of the 4085–4100 region. A strong bullish displacement followed by an H1 reclaim above 4100 would indicate that the current recovery may be developing into a broader bullish correction rather than simply a retracement. In this situation, I would avoid maintaining the original bearish setup. The next upside areas to monitor would be: • 4120: Intermediate resistance. • 4133–4145: Major resistance zone. • 4150–4155: Previous BSL liquidity area. A brief move above 4100 without sustained acceptance would not automatically confirm a bullish reversal. I would still require a clear structural change and follow-through. 🧭 TODAY'S MARKET OUTLOOK My primary bias for today's session is bearish, with a possible recovery before further downside. The most important area to monitor is 4085–4097. This is the main decision zone where the market may reveal whether the current recovery is corrective or the beginning of a more meaningful reversal. I expect three possible developments: 1. Early Recovery: Price continues moving upward toward 4060–4073, testing the bearish FVG. 2. Extended Retracement: If bullish momentum remains active, price may reach 4085–4097. This is the preferred area to monitor for bearish confirmation. 3. Downside Continuation: If the upper POI rejects price, the market may resume its bearish movement toward 4045 and 4012. A confirmed break below 4012 could expose 3980 and the lower demand region. The alternative is a sustained H1 reclaim above 4100, which would weaken the bearish thesis and shift attention toward 4120 and 4133–4150.