The 4055 Rejection Could Trigger 3930 | XAUUSD 12/11GoldOANDA:XAUUSDAdrian_NovaTrader🌐 MARKET CONTEXT Gold is trading around 3982–3985 after strong bearish displacement from the 4140–4150 resistance zone. The previous bullish structure failed after price encountered significant supply around 4110–4125. The rejection triggered successive bearish candles, a break below the 4040 liquidity area, and a sharp decline toward 3980 support. Rather than chasing the current downside momentum, my primary expectation is a temporary bullish retracement toward the 4010–4045 FVG, potentially extending to the 4055–4065 bearish OB. This recovery could provide an opportunity for sellers to regain control if H1 price action confirms another bearish reaction. The overall outlook remains bearish unless price reclaims 4065–4070 and establishes meaningful bullish structure. 📍 KEY LEVELS Major Resistance: 4140–4150 Upper Supply OB: 4110–4125 Secondary Resistance OB: 4055–4065 Main Retracement FVG: 4010–4045 Broken Liquidity Area: 4030–4040 Current Support: 3980–3985 First Downside Objective: 3942–3945 Major Demand OB: 3920–3932 Deeper Support: 3878–3890 🔍 H1 MARKET STRUCTURE The H1 chart shows a clear transition from bullish expansion to bearish displacement. Price previously developed a bullish sequence after breaking above EQH and confirming BOS. This expansion created bullish POIs, including the FVG around 3960–3995 and the demand OB around 3920–3932. However, the rally toward 4140–4150 failed to establish further upside continuation. Following the rejection, price formed a bearish sequence and broke below the 4040 liquidity region. Sellers have consequently gained short-term structural control. The latest decline toward 3982 suggests that price is seeking liquidity around lower support levels. The key question is whether a recovery can reclaim the broken structure. As long as the retracement remains below 4055–4065, bearish pressure remains dominant. 🔴 PRIMARY SCENARIO – BEARISH CONTINUATION My main expectation is a corrective recovery followed by another bearish expansion. After the substantial decline, immediate continuation without a retracement is not my preferred entry condition. The 4010–4045 FVG is the first reaction area. If buyers push price higher, the 4055–4065 OB becomes the more important resistance zone. Trading Plan: Entry Zone: 4055–4060 Stop Loss: 4072 Take Profit 1: 3982 Take Profit 2: 3943 Take Profit 3: 3930 Extended Objective: 3880 Evaluate risk-to-reward using the actual execution price, spread and position size. Confirmation required: Price retraces into 4055–4060 OB. H1 candles show rejection or weakening bullish momentum. M15 develops bearish CHoCH or MSS. Bearish displacement confirms sellers are regaining control. Price fails to establish acceptance above 4065. The first objective is a retest of 3982. If support fails, the next areas are 3943 and 3930. The 3920–3932 OB is an important demand region where price could produce a stronger reaction. If bearish momentum persists, an extended decline toward 3880 becomes possible. 🟢 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO – BULLISH RECOVERY The 3980–3985 support area should not be ignored. Price could establish a short-term bullish reaction after the aggressive decline. If H1 candles reclaim 4010–4045 and establish higher highs and higher lows, recovery toward 4055–4065 becomes possible. A sustained H1 close above 4065, followed by a successful retest, would weaken the immediate bearish outlook. The next upside areas would be: 4110–4125: Upper Supply OB 4140–4150: Major Resistance This scenario requires genuine structural recovery rather than a temporary bullish candle. A bearish position should be reconsidered if the expected rejection structure is invalidated. 🎯 TODAY'S TRADING PLAN Primary Direction: Bearish Preferred Setup: Retracement into 4055–4060 OB followed by bearish confirmation. Entry: 4055–4060 SL: 4072 TP1: 3982 TP2: 3943 TP3: 3930 Extended TP: 3880 Wait for price to recover into resistance rather than chasing the existing decline. If price never reaches the preferred entry zone, do not force an entry. If price breaks below 3980 before retracing, wait for a retest and fresh M15 bearish confirmation. Risk Management: Keep risk within the predefined account limit. Avoid entering before confirmation. Do not widen SL after execution. Consider partial profit-taking at the first objective. Reassess the remaining position around 3943 and 3930. ⚠️ INVALIDATION & RISK CONTROL The primary bearish setup becomes invalid if price establishes sustained H1 acceptance above 4072. A decisive recovery above 4065–4072 indicates that the expected bearish rejection is no longer developing as planned. The bearish continuation scenario should then be reconsidered. A clean break below 3980 without retracement changes the execution plan but does not justify chasing price. 🧭 MY BIAS Bearish – Retracement First, Potential Continuation Lower. Gold may recover from 3980–3985 toward the 4010–4045 FVG, with 4055–4065 acting as the main bearish reaction zone. The preferred approach is to monitor 4055–4060 and wait for M15 bearish confirmation. If rejection develops, 3982 is the first objective, followed by 3943 and the 3920–3932 demand OB. A sustained recovery above 4072 invalidates the primary execution plan. Patience is essential: wait for price to reach a meaningful POI, seek confirmation and avoid chasing an extended move.