THROUGH THE NIGHT · Thu 12 Nov · XAUUSD Daily PivotsGold - CashCMCMARKETS:GOLDRealMichaelNeoR3 4097 R2 4065 R1 4045 PIVOT 4012 S1 3980 S2 3960 S3 3928 WHERE WE LEFT IT Wednesday: sellers turned the pivot, we went short at 4061, and S1 was reached (+$51 level to level). Sellers didn't stop there. Price carried on to Wednesday's S2 at 3982, and gold closed at 3988. THE DEAD CAT CASE IS NOW IN PLAY Last week we set the trigger: a daily close below 4023. Wednesday closed at 3988. The trigger is hit. The bounce failed. The lower high is at 4149. The target is 3866 to 3870: the weekly S61 and the October low. What would change the read: a daily close back above 4023. WHERE PRICE SITS 3974. That's $6 under S1, which is being tested in Asia right now. The M15 mid trend curve sits here too. Bias: LOWER while H1 holds below the pivot at 4012. How bias flips: an H1 close above 4012 and a retest that holds. A wick doesn't count. PATH 1 · SELLERS (with bias) H1 closes below S1 at 3980 and the retest holds → S2 at 3960. A break of S2 → S3 at 3928, which sits right on the weekly S38 (3929). Expect buyers there. A break of S3 opens the dead cat target at 3866 to 3870. Scalpers go level to level. Day traders take the same entries but hold while H1 stays below 4012. PATH 2 · BUYERS DEFEND S1 H1 closes back above S1 and the retest holds → back to the pivot at 4012. Above the pivot, R1 at 4045. TODAY (UK time) 07:00 · UK GDP 13:30 · US jobless claims · forecast 194K (previous 189K) 19:30 · ECB's Lagarde speaks Friday · US PPI THE RULES Level to level only. 1.5R minimum. Stop to breakeven at 1R. The trade reaches the next level or it scores zero. M15 confirms the entry. H1 sets the bias.