Expecting a Price Move from the Marked AreaBrent Crude Oil Fut LCOF7 Exp 23/11/2026 23:59FPMARKETS:BRENTTrexbowmanExpecting a Price Move from the Marked Area **Does War Always Lead to Higher Oil Prices? No!** Oil prices are influenced by multiple factors, and war is only one of them. These factors include: - Weather conditions and severe maritime storms - Rising insurance costs for oil tankers - Disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Suez Canal - Oil sanctions and export restrictions - Decisions made by OPEC and OPEC+ - Oil production levels in the United States and other exporting countries - Strategic and commercial oil inventories - Economic growth or recession in China and the United States - Seasonal fuel demand - The US dollar and monetary policy - Disruptions to pipelines, ports, and refineries **Key Takeaway:** War does not necessarily lead to higher oil prices. What really matters is its actual or expected impact on oil supply, demand, and the cost of accessing and transporting oil. The oil market does not react to the news itself; it reacts to its economic consequences. @trexbowman_sb | TREXbowman | Structure & Behavior