Is EUR/AUD’s 500-Pip Rally Running Out of Steam?EUR/AUDOANDA:EURAUDEdgeTradingJourneyEUR/AUD closed Friday near 1.6273, roughly 500 pips above its late-October low. The weekly channel still slopes lower, yet both of the last two weekly candles closed higher. Price is now trading in the upper part of the supply zone I’ve marked at 1.6250–1.6335. What matters to me this week is whether sellers can break the sequence of higher lows that brought price here. For Monday, 16 November, I’ve marked Friday’s high near 1.6305. My short setup starts with a push above that high and a move back below it. I then want an hourly candle to close below the last higher low that led into the sweep. I’ll be watching for that break during my usual windows of 08:00–11:00 and 14:00–17:00 CET. If that sequence develops, my first downside area is 1.6150–1.6170, the base of the broader supply zone. A break below it and a failed attempt to reclaim it would put 1.6050 in focus. I’d need to see that level give way before looking for a return to the October low at 1.5775. Below that low, my chart shows weekly demand around 1.5700–1.5750. The 3 November COT report showed a larger weekly shift toward net shorts in euro futures. AUD futures still carried the heavier net short relative to open interest, at 39.4% versus 18.0% for EUR. Both contracts measure positioning against the US dollar, so I read them as indirect evidence for this cross. The retail sentiment on EUR/AUD shows a volume was almost evenly split on 14 November. Seasonality also gives me little reason to anticipate a reversal, with the pair rising in 13 of the last 27 completed Novembers. I would change my view in case of a daily close above 1.6335, followed by buyers defending that level on a retest, would invalidate my short setup from this zone. I’d then watch 1.6440 first and 1.6470–1.6510 as the next area where sellers could respond.