QQQ: 1 month of my rules in a sell-off. What was right and wrongInvesco QQQ Trust Series IBATS:QQQTheSimplePortfolioQQQ closed Friday at 679.89, 10.5% below its Oct 6 closing high (759.66). I've posted every signal from my free tools here as it happened. Here's the full scorecard, misses included. Closing prices unless I say open. QQQ - Trend Safety Switch, Oct 14: trend turned down, exposure 100% to 30% at 728.95. QQQ was already 4.0% off the top. Since then it's down another 6.7%. Right, but late by 4%. - Market Fear Meter, Oct 21 and Oct 27: two "fear fading" signals, at 725.20 and 721.25. Both failed. Fear came back within days and QQQ is 6.2% and 5.7% lower now. Wrong. - Risk-Off Ladder, Nov 5: 3 of 3 warnings, out at the Nov 6 open (658.35). Most of the damage was the Nov 5 day itself (-5.3% from open to close), so it stepped aside after the hit, not before. Back to 2 of 3, then 1 of 3 on Nov 10, back in at the Nov 11 open (687.28), 4.4% higher than it sold. Wrong this round. That's the cost of a 2-alarm rule in a fast V-shaped dip. - Trend Safety Switch, Nov 5: 30% to 0% at 647.05. QQQ is 5.1% higher now. Wrong so far on that last 30%. - Market Fear Meter, Nov 9: fear fading at 679.35. QQQ closed Friday at 679.89. Still open. SPY - Trend Safety Switch, Oct 30: 100% to 30% at 755.72. SPY closed Friday at 754.37. Flat so far. - Risk-Off Ladder: never left 100%. The most it saw was 1 of 3 warnings, even on the Nov 5 low close (733.00, 5.9% off the top). Right: SPY's dip stayed a dip. Honest summary: the slow trend tool did its job, cutting before most of the drop. The fast tools paid whipsaw costs. That's the trade-off I chose on purpose. Small, frequent costs, in exchange for not sitting through a 2000, 2008 or 2022. One month doesn't prove anything either way. Where it stands after Friday's close QQQ: 0.3% under its 200-day (about 682), so that warning is on. VIX 19.30 is under its warning line (about 19.92). The -15% line is about 648. That's 1 of 3, so the Ladder is at 100%. The Trend Safety Switch is at 0%; its trend line is about 710, 4.4% above the price. SPY: 3.1% above its 200-day (about 732), 0 of 3, Ladder 100%. Trend Safety Switch 30% until a close above about 773, 2.5% above the price. What would change it this week (Nvidia reports Tuesday after the close): - VIX closes above about 19.92 while QQQ stays under about 682: 2 of 3, the Ladder goes to 0%. - QQQ closes back above about 682: the 200-day warning turns off. - QQQ closes above about 710: the Trend Safety Switch turns back up. - SPY closes above about 773: its switch goes back to 100%. I'll add a note here when any of these fire. Limits: one month, two tickers, daily closes, no taxes or costs. Signals are mechanical and can and do miss. Not advice, just what the rules did.