NAS100 Weekly: summer floor broken, 50-week EMA is the lineUS Nas 100OANDA:NAS100USDGovindSatoshiNAS100 closed last week at 27,849, up 3.1% and back on the 50-week EMA at 27,623. The week before was the first weekly close under that average since March, after four straight lower closes took the index from its 30,928 record weekly close down to 27,012. RSI 14 is 45, under the midline but not oversold. Structure is what changed. From late May to mid-September the index held a range of roughly 27,100 to 30,800. The early October push to 31,401 was a new high, but the selloff that followed took out the late-July swing low at 27,093 and printed 26,273, a 16.3% peak-to-trough drop. That is the first lower low below the summer range floor. Last week's bounce stalled at 28,617, under the 29,100 area where the October selloff first paused. What still holds: the 100-week EMA (25,342) and 200-week EMA (21,907) are well below price and the averages are still stacked 50 over 100 over 200. The 50-week has flattened, though. On the weekly this is a correction inside an uptrend until the 100-week gets tested. Levels I'm watching: 26,273: the November low. A weekly close below it opens the 100-week EMA near 25,340. 27,620: the 50-week EMA. Weekly closes above it keep the bounce alive. 29,100: the reclaim level. A weekly close back above it puts the 31,400 record back in play. Thesis: The longer averages still show the trend, but the structure is damaged, and one 3% bounce off the 50-week does not repair a lower low. I would not be adding long index exposure until there is a weekly close back above 29,100, and I would step aside on a weekly close under 26,273. The limitation: weekly closes are slow, so a fast break of 26,273 will be well underway before the signal confirms. For Australian traders: ASIC caps retail leverage on major index CFDs at 20:1, which is 5% margin. A stop under the November low is about 5.7% from the last close, more than the whole margin on a fully levered position. Size from the stop distance, not from the leverage on offer. There is a free position size calculator in the SatoshiMacro tools section that does the arithmetic. The US 100 also trades overnight Australian time, so most of the move happens while you sleep. Not financial advice.